Sinner vs Auger-Aliassime Picks, Predictions & Odds (Sep. 5)

• Jannik Sinner puts a 26-match hardcourt grand slam win streak on the line against Felix Auger-Aliassime on Friday
• Auger-Aliassime is looking for his second career appearance in a grand slam final
• See the lopsided Sinner vs Aliassime odds plus my picks and predictions on Sep. 5

World #1 Jannik Sinner, winner of the last three hardcourt grand slams, brings a 26-match hardcourt slam win streak into the 2025 US Open semifinals. On Friday, the Italian will face world #27 Felix Auger-Aliassime, who upset three straight top-15 opponents to reach the semis, matching his career-best performance at a grand slam.

The 25-year-old Canadian is listed as a massive underdog in the Sinner vs Auger-Aliassime odds. The pair are scheduled to meet on Arthur Ashe at 7:00 pm ET.

Sinner vs Auger-Aliassime Odds

The best moneyline bettors can find on Sinner currently is a hyper-short -2500 at Caesars or BetMGM. The longest odds on Auger-Aliassime to win are +1500 at ESPN Bet. Most books list the default game spread at 7.5; DK has the best odds on Sinner covering the game spread at -135, while ESPN Bet again has the best odds on Auger-Aliassime to cover at +120.

Odds as of Sep. 5. Claim the ESPN Bet promo code to wager on the US Open semifinals today.

Sinner is the -146 favorite in the US Open odds heading into the semis, followed closely by Carlos Alcaraz (+145), who faces Novak Djokovic in the first semifinal earlier in the day.

Auger-Aliassime has posted back-to-back-to-back wins over world #3 Alexander Zverev (4-6, 7-6⁷, 6-4, 6-4) as a +275 underdog, #15 Andrey Rublev (7-5, 6-3, 6-4) as a +110 underdog, and #8 Alex De Minaur (4-6, 7-6⁷, 7-5, 7-6⁴) as a +120 underdog, twice coming from a set down.

Sinner made short work of a top-ten opponent last time out, crushing Lorenzo Musetti (6-1, 6-4, 6-2), saving all seven breakpoints against his serve, and capitalizing on a stunning 5-of-6 break chances (83%) on the Musetti serve.

While that’s the type of stat you might think would regress to the mean, Sinner has a long history of buckling down during pressure points. Over the last 52 weeks, he sits second on the ATP Tour in “Under Pressure Rating”. Auger-Aliassime is a respectable 38th.

Auger-Aliassime vs Sinner H2H History

Auger-Aliassime took the first two head-to-head matches against Sinner, but both of those were way back in 2022. When the pair met less than a month ago in Cincinnati, it was a much different story: Sinner massacred the Canadian, dropping just two games.

There’s no doubt that Auger-Aliassime is playing his best tennis in years at the moment, but it’s hard to pick any area of the game where he’s going to get the better of Sinner.

Sinner’s sits first in Serve Rating on the entire tour over the last 52 weeks, well ahead of Auger-Aliassime in 12th. Sinner also sits first in Return Rating, while Auger-Aliassime is a distant 64th.

Sinner vs Auger-Aliassime Prediction & Picks

I fully expect another whitewash from Sinner, who has dropped just one set all tournament. The way he dominated Auger-Aliassime in Cincinnati less than a month ago is too much for me to ignore. Prior to this US Open run, Auger-Aliassime was just 5-3 straight-up during the current hardcourt swing.

Even if Auger-Aliassime is able to force a tiebreak, Sinner’s “Under Pressure Rating” will position him as a sizeable favorite to win the breaker.

Bettors can still get Sinner to win in straight sets at -185 at DraftKings. That prop is as short as -250 at FanDuel.