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Tournament-favorite France will meet heavyweight Spain in the World Cup quarterfinals on July 14 in Arlington, Texas, with the winner advancing to the tournament title game on July 19.
The France vs Spain odds have opened with Les Bleus as a modest favorite.
Spain vs France Odds
Frane is a 61-cent favorite in the Kalshi market on World Cup finalists, which is the equivalent of -156 American odds. Spain comes back as a 40-cent underdog, equal to a +150 price tag.
At bet365, the 3-way moneyline favors France at a modest +130. A Spain win in regulation time is priced at +210. And a 90-minute draw is +225.
France Outclass Morocco
Despite a missed penalty from Kylian Mbappe in the first half, France pulled away for a 2-0 quarterfinal win over Morocco on Thursday. They generated an absurd 3.68 xG compared to just 0.14 for the Atlas Lions, thoroughly outclassing the African side for the full 90 minutes.
The France goal was also hardly threatened in their 1-0 win over Paraguay in the quarterfinals, which came on the heels of a 3-0 win over Sweden in the round of 32.
Spain Separate Late from Belgium, Portugal
Spain took down bitter Iberian rival Portugal (1-0) thanks to a stoppage-time goal from Mikel Merino, and nearly did the same to Belgium. After the teams played to a 1-1 stalemate in the first 45 minutes, Merino scored the winner in the 88th minute, just three minutes after he came onto the field.
Belgium’s goal against Spain was the first La Roja had surrendered all tournament. Their knockout stage run also included a consummate 3-0 win over Austria in the round of 32.
Spain continues to lag well behind tournament-favorite France in the odds to win the World Cup.
France is trading at 38.8¢ (equal to +158 odds) with Spain at 20.7¢ (equal to +383 odds).
Spain has won the last two against France, head-to-head, winning a 5-4 shootout in the 2025 Nations League (which saw France nearly overcome a 4-1 deficit) and a 2-1 nailbiter in the 2024 Euro.
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