Sweden vs Tunisia Best Bets, Picks & Injuries

• Sweden’s elite attack faces Tunisia’s recently-exploited defense
• Viktor Gyokeres is a +EV bet in the anytime goalscorer market
• See my top Sweden vs Tunisia picks and predictions for June 14

Jump to: ODDS || PICKS || RECENT RESULTS || INJURIES

A four-match World Cup slate on Sunday is rounded out by a fascinating clash of styles as Sweden squares off against Tunisia at 10:00 pm ET in Guadalupe, Mexico. With heavyweight Netherlands and ever-dangerous Japan rounding out the group, both Sweden and Tunisia will see this as a must-not-lose match if they hope to advance.

Sweden enters as the clear favorite. They boast elite attacking firepower led by Viktor Gyokeres. However, they arrive with severe defensive liabilities, having conceded a goal in 11 consecutive fixtures.

Tunisia navigated their qualifying run without conceding a single goal but that defensive solidity has been called into question in recent friendlies against stiffer competition, in particular a 5-0 thrashing by Belgium last time out. They have failed to score in three straight.

With the Netherlands and Japan waiting in Group F, the pressure to secure an immediate three points is immense. For bettors, this fixture offers a classic positional dilemma. I am looking to exploit value on a heavily favored European attack facing an opponent desperate to regain their defensive form.

Tunisia vs Sweden Odds

Odds as of June 14 at Kalshi. Sign-up at the best prediction markets for the World Cup.

Sweden enters Sunday’s nightcap as the favorite at 52¢, translating to -108 American odds. The draw is priced at 28¢ (+257), while Tunisia to win sits at 22¢ (+354).

The total-goals prices are skewed to a low-scoring game. Over 2.5 goals is trading at 44¢ (+127) while under 2.5 goals sits at 57¢ (-133).

Sweden over 1.5 team goals is 45¢ (+122), and Tunisia over 0.5 goals is favored at 61¢ (-156).

Sweden vs Tunisia Predictions, Picks & Player Props

I am targeting three distinct +EV wagers for this Group F opener. My primary target is the Sweden moneyline at 52¢ (-108) on Kalshi.

Moneyline Pick – Sweden to Win: 52¢ (-108) at Kalshi

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Graham Potter has assembled a Swedish squad with imposing options up front, presenting a significant matchup problem for Sabri Lamouchi’s defense.

When analyzing the raw data, the physical disparities in the penalty area become stark. Viktor Gyokeres brings a powerful frame to the forward line, giving Sweden a distinct edge over a Tunisian defense that recently surrendered five goals to Belgium.

Total-Goals Pick – Over 2.5: 44¢ (+127) at Kalshi

While the broader market slightly favors a lower-scoring affair, the underlying game script points toward the over. Sweden simply cannot stop conceding, leaking goals in 11 straight games. I am hitting Over 2.5 goals at 44¢ (+127) on Kalshi. If Sweden pushes high, Tunisia’s midfield possesses the creativity to slip passes through to the attack.

Anytime Goalscorer Pick – Viktor Gyokeres 38¢ (+163) at Kalshi

I am backing Viktor Gyokeres as an anytime goalscorer at 38¢ at Kalshi, which converts to +163 American odds and is better than the market-best +154 price at traditional sportsbooks.

Given Tunisia’s defensive collapse in their final tune-up, banking on Gyokeres to overpower his markers in the box represents a strong edge.

Recent Results: SWE vs TUN

Neither team has been terribly convincing of late. Sweden was full value for its final two qualification wins over the Ukraine (3-1) and Polan (3-2) but only managed a draw against Greece (2-2) and ugly loss to Norway (3-1) in their more-recent tune-up friendlies.

Tunisia enters on the heels of an embarrassing 5-0 loss to Belgium, a game in which they were badly outplayed in every third. They also lost 1-0 to Austria and drew Canada 0-0 in their last three.

Sweden vs Tunisia Head-to-Head History

These teams have met three times previously but not since 2003 so the past results have little bearing on today’s match. For what it’s worth, Sweden won twice and Tunisia once with all three games ending 1-0.

Given the 2026 iterations of the squads, Sweden’s overpowering physical advantages in the final third should swing the inaugural meeting in their favor. Tunisia’s recent collapses suggest their goals-conceded average is at serious risk of ballooning early in the group stage.

Sweden vs Tunisia Injury Report

As both nations prepare for this crucial opener, only one significant player has an injury concern: Sweden’s Gabriel Gudmundsson. The Leeds fullback has been battling a severe illness and remains questionable.

In the last couple weeks, Tunisia had doubts whether forward Hannibal Mejbri would be fit for the first game but he appears to be fully healthy, which is big for an attack that has drawn blanks in three straight matches