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- The San Antonio Spurs host the Minnesota Timberwolves in Game 1 of the West Semi-Finals Monday, May 4th
- How the player prop market will be affected with Anthony Edwards set to miss this duel
- Read on to see my two NBA player prop selections I’m making as the series gets underway in San Antonio
The Western Conference Semifinals tip-off Monday evening, with the Timberwolves and Spurs clashing. Game 1 is scheduled for 6:30 PM PT / 9:30 PM ET, broadcasting nationally on NBCSN and Peacock in the United States and Sportsnet in Canada, live from the Frost Bank Center.
The NBA odds show the Spurs are hefty home favorites by 13.5 points as Minny is without Anthony Edwards (knee). With him sidelined, I dive into the most profitable angles to target as these heavyweights battle to draw first blood.
Spurs vs Timberwolves Player-Prop Picks
De’Aaron Fox Over 5.5 Assists (-143 at Caesars)
The Spurs have morphed into an offensive juggernaut, boasting a league-best 41.8% team three-point shooting percentage. By spreading the floor effectively, they create massive driving lanes for De’Aaron Fox. With the Timberwolves’ defense focused on containing Victor Wembanyama inside, Fox is primed to operate as the primary offensive engine.
Fox established a baseline of 6.2 assists per game during the regular season. This postseason, Fox is averaging 6.8 assists per game, reaching the over 5.5 benchmark in four of five battles. The Timberwolves’ defense has shown a glaring vulnerability to ball movement when traveling, allowing opponents to average 30.0 assists per game in three away playoff contests.
Rudy Gobert Under 11.5 Rebounds (-132 at BetMGM)
The Timberwolves impose their will through sheer physical dominance, securing a massive 55.2% Total Rebound Percentage. However, oddsmakers hung Gobert’s rebounding prop at a flat 11.5, completely ignoring a massive home and away statistical split.
While Gobert has been an absolute monster on the glass at home, his production plummets in hostile territory. Across three away playoff games, he secured just 24 total boards, translating to a meager 8.0 rebounds per game, not reaching the 12+ rebound total once. In five of the last eight vs the Spurs, Gobert has failed to grab twelve or more boards. Facing a San Antonio squad that secures a dominant 73.8% of available defensive rebounds, the math heavily dictates fading the Stifle Tower in the NBA Player Props.
Spurs vs Timberwolves Player-Prop Odds
Odds as of May 4, 2026. Check out the full list of DraftKings deposit methods before betting on Timberwolves vs Spurs.
MIN vs SAS Key Injuries
The Spurs are entering this matchup with a pristine bill of health. The NBA starting lineups show they won’t be affected, unlike their counterparts. David Jones Garcia remains out for the season following ankle surgery in February, but the core rotation remains completely intact.
Conversely, the Timberwolves are navigating a brutal stretch of ill-timed injuries. Anthony Edwards remains week-to-week with a knee injury, stripping the offense of its primary creator. Donte DiVincenzo is also out for the season with a torn Achilles.
Ayo Dosunmu is currently day-to-day with a calf injury after missing Game 6 against the Nuggets. Kyle Anderson is also day-to-day with an illness. Because the offensive usage has to go somewhere, sportsbooks bumped Dosunmu’s point total up, but his questionable status makes his overs highly volatile.