UFC Fight Night Predictions, Picks & Odds for Muhammad vs Bonfim Main Card

• UFC Fight Night is headlined by a welterweight clash between fifth-ranked Belal Muhammad and eleventh-ranked Gabriel Bonfim at the Apex in Las Vegas
• The main event is a near pick’em, with Muhammad a -112 favorite and our model siding with the veteran to grind out a decision
• Below, see our UFC Fight Night predictions, picks and odds for the Muhammad vs Bonfim main card

The octagon returns to the Meta Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada, this Saturday, June 6, 2026, for a stacked five-fight UFC Fight Night main card headlined by a marquee welterweight clash between fifth-ranked Belal Muhammad (24-5-0, 1 NC) and eleventh-ranked Gabriel Bonfim (19-1-0). The main card kicks off at 7:00 PM EST, with the main event at approximately 10:00 PM EST.

This card is loaded with sharp betting angles from top to bottom. The near pick’em main event offers rare value in the method-of-victory markets, while several lopsided undercards create strong parlay foundations for bettors looking to stack legs.

Below are our full UFC Fight Night predictions, picks and odds, with a complete breakdown of every main card bout, model probabilities, and actionable plays.

UFC Fight Night Predictions

All odds are sourced from DraftKings Sportsbook. Lock in a new account with our DraftKings promo code before the main card.

UFC Fight Night Picks: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, 5 Rounds)

The Line: Muhammad -112 / Bonfim -108 | O/U 3.5 Rounds (Over -188, Under +145)

This classic veteran-versus-prospect matchup is a fascinating puzzle. Strip the juice from DraftKings’ near pick’em line and the true probabilities are razor-thin — Muhammad at 50.43% to Bonfim’s 49.57%. Muhammad (24-5-0) brings undeniable veteran savvy and elite wrestling credentials, but Bonfim enters boasting a hyper-efficient 19-1-0 mark with a 95% career win rate.

While both men share an identical 72-inch reach, Bonfim is the taller fighter at 6-foot-1 compared to Muhammad’s 5-foot-11—but Muhammad’s 4-0 record against grappling-based fighters and elite takedown defense neutralize Bonfim’s physical edges.

Muhammad has built his career on smothering pressure wrestling and top control, and critically, he only loses to elite strikers, which Bonfim is not. Bonfim’s game is built on explosive wrestling and finishing sequences, not sustained technical striking from the outside. When forced to fight at range for 25 minutes against a veteran who won’t give him easy entries, Bonfim’s output will stall, and Muhammad’s grinding pace takes over.

Pick: Belal Muhammad Moneyline (-112) — The veteran’s 4-0 record against grappling-based fighters is the key stat here. Bonfim doesn’t have the striking diversity to trouble Muhammad from the outside, and he likely won’t out-wrestle him for 25 minutes. Back the grinder at pick’em odds.

Pick: Over 3.5 Rounds (-188) — Muhammad’s early-round finish rate has fallen off a cliff against top-15 competition. He’s a suffocating grappler who drains gas tanks slowly, and Bonfim will fight a measured, tactical pace against this step up in competition. This bout easily hits the championship rounds.

Pick: Muhammad by Decision (+200) — Muhammad doesn’t finish elite competition; he outworks them over five rounds with relentless pressure and control time. Bonfim’s chin and toughness will keep him in the fight, but the scorecards will favor the veteran’s pace and top control.

Co-Main Event: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan Prediction (Middleweight, 3 Rounds)

The Line: Allen -198 / Shahbazyan +164 | O/U 1.5 Rounds (Over -200, Under +154)

Fourth-ranked Brendan Allen (26-7-0) is one of the most active finishers at 185 pounds and carries a significant experience edge with 33 professional fights to Shahbazyan’s 21. Both men stand 6-foot-2, but Allen holds a one-inch reach advantage at 76 inches. Our model gives Allen a 63.6% win probability, making -198 a fair price with no edge on the moneyline itself — but the method markets tell a different story.

Allen’s grappling pedigree is world-class. He’s a BJJ black belt who consistently drags fights to the mat and hunts submissions with relentless pressure. Shahbazyan has shown recurring durability issues across his five career losses, particularly when opponents impose a physical style against him on the ground. However, the +164 on Shahbazyan feels too wide for a fighter with legitimate knockout power — but Allen’s path to victory is crystal clear.

Shahbazyan has allowed over three minutes of control time in four of his five UFC losses. Since entering the top 15 in 2023, Allen averages over four minutes of control time per fight.

Pick: Brendan Allen Moneyline (-198) — Allen’s volume and versatility overwhelm Shahbazyan, who has shown durability concerns in his five career losses. The odds feel slightly too wide, but Allen’s massive grappling advantage makes this a confident lay.

Pick: Allen by Decision (+175) — Allen’s grappling edge is undeniable, but Shahbazyan is durable enough to survive three rounds without being submitted. He’s only been submitted once in his career. Expect Allen to smother and control for 15 minutes, grinding out a dominant but not fight-ending top game. Plus-money on the decision reflects the market overrating Allen’s finishing upside here.

Fares Ziam vs. Tom Nolan Prediction (Lightweight, 3 Rounds)

The Line: Ziam -310 / Nolan +250 | O/U 1.5 Rounds (Over -215, Under +165)

The key to this fight is the experience gap. Ziam has seen everything over 22 professional bouts, while Nolan’s 11-fight career hasn’t prepared him for this caliber of pressure-striking. Nolan tends to fight recklessly, which plays directly into Ziam’s counter-striking game.

Both fighters are tall for the division, with Ziam standing 6-foot-1 and Nolan standing 6-foot-3. With both used to having substantial reach advantages, it will be interesting to see how they navigate facing an opponent with a similar frame. The even playing field favors Ziam, who is the much more skilled fighter in all areas.

Pick: Fares Ziam Moneyline (-310) — The experience gap is enormous. Steep for a standalone play, but an elite parlay leg.

Pick: Ziam by KO/TKO (+175) — Ziam’s technical striking is on a level above Nolan’s, and Nolan’s reckless style leaves him wide open to clean counters. Ziam has the cleaner technique and the experience to time a finishing shot when Nolan overcommits. At +175 on the heavy favorite’s most dangerous weapon, this is our best method prop on the card.

Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna Prediction (Featherweight, 3 Rounds)

The Line: Mitchell -130 / Luna +110 | O/U 2.5 Rounds (Over -188, Under +145)

The most intriguing betting matchup on the card. Bryce Mitchell (18-4-0) is the slight favorite against undefeated Santiago Luna (8-0-0). Mitchell stands 5-foot-10 with a 70-inch reach, while Luna possesses a massive 74-inch reach — a four-inch advantage that can’t be ignored. Our model gives Mitchell a 55.0% win probability, but we’re fading it here.