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- Saturday’s UFC Las Vegas Prelims feature 7 fights, including the Jafel Filho vs Cody Durden bantamweight bout
- Durden is 1-6 in his last seven fights, losing inside the distance four times
- See my UFC Las Vegas Prelims predictions & picks, along with my best bets including Filho vs Durden
The UFC is back in Vegas on Saturday for a 13-fight card, headlined by the Aljamain Sterling vs Youssef Zalal featherweight bout. That fight is the main course, but before we can even think about breaking down that bout or any of the other five Main Card fights, we have to explore the prelims.
The appetizer so to speak, features seven bouts, with the Jafel Filho vs Cody Durden bantamweight matchup being my favorite fight to target. Durden will enter the Octagon in miserable form, and I’m expecting Filho to put the nail in his coffin, potentially ending his UFC tenure.
The UFC Las Vegas Prelims are set to get underway at 2:15 pm PT, 5:15 pm ET on Paramount+, with the Main Card fights starting at 5:15 pm PT, 8:15 pm ET also on Paramount+.
Here are my UFC Las Vegas Prelims predictions & picks, along with my best bets including Filho vs Durden and more.
UFC Las Vegas Prelims Predictions: Jafel Filho Method of Victory
UFC Las Vegas Prelims Pick #1: Jafel Filho to win by Submission (-115 at Bet365)
The way I see it, the Filho vs Durden fight is going to end one way. With Filho submitting his opponent. That’s how he’s won each of his three fights in the promotion, and the Brazilian has a long history of making his opponents tap.
Filho boasts 11 submissions on his 17-win professional resume. He averages over 2.5 takedowns per 15 minutes, and once he gets you on the mat, he’s got the wrestling pedigree to put his opponents in a pretzel.
Durden, meanwhile, is on his last legs. He’s dropped six of his past seven fights, losing inside the distance four times. The American is as battle-tested as they come in the bantamweight division, but his durability is shot, and he’s suffered losses in recent bouts to fighters that he would have annihilated in his prime.
Filho may only have five UFC fights under his belt, but he’s proven that he’ll submit anyone who can’t match his skill level. His only losses have been to top contenders, and I bet he makes quick work of the washed-up Durden.
UFC Las Vegas Prelims Predictions: Talita Alencar Moneyline
- UFC Las Vegas Prelims Pick #2: Talita Alencar Moneyline (+210 at DraftKings)
Next up, I’m backing a plus-money dog in the women’s strawweight dvision. Talita Alencar is catching +210 odds to upset Julia Polastri, who’s consistently been one of the most overrated fighters in the divison.
Polastri has alternated wins and losses since joining the UFC, and is being overvalued by the market thanks to her knockout win over Karolina Kowalkiewicz last fall. Yes, it was an impressive victory, but outside of that bout her results have been middling.
“Psycho” has yet to be finished as a professional, but she is very hittable. Polastri absorbs 5.4 significant strikes per minute, and that’s a recipe for disaster against the hard-hitting Alencar.
Alencar is coming off a finish of her own, improving her record to 3-1 in the UFC, and 7-1-1 as a professional. She’s got an excellent grappling background and a punishing ground and pound attack. I think she’s live not only to beat Polastri, but also to be the first woman to finish her.
UFC Las Vegas Prelims Predictions: Max Griffin by Decision
- UFC Las Vegas Prelims Pick #3: Max Griffin by Decision (+200 at Bet365)
Finally, I’m backing one of the most battle-tested welterweights ever in Max Griffin over Victor Valenzuela. Griffin is an incredibly boring watch, but he’s seen it all over the course of his 18-fight UFC career. His sizeable height and reach advantage will allow him to keep the fight at a distance he can control, and he’ll punish the overly aggressive Valenzuela every time he gets out of line.
Valenzuela is simply not worthy of this stage. He’s only one fight removed from a brutal knockout loss on the Contender Series, and you could argue he’s only in the promotion to fill out the numbers at this point. Valenzuela made a name for himself by stacking wins under the banner of inferior promotions, and his rude awakening to the UFC will continue against the cagey veteran Griffin.
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