UFC Oklahoma City Odds & Main Card Predictions for du Plessis vs. Usman

• Dricus du Plessis meets Kamaru Usman in a massive middleweight main event clash.
• du Plessis is a -245 favorite at Bet365 with Usman sitting at +200.
• See my expert du Plessis vs Usman predictions, picks and latest odds below.

UFC Fight Night touches down at the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, bringing bettors a phenomenal clash with massive championship implications. The spotlight shines on the middleweight main event between No. 2-ranked Dricus du Plessis and former welterweight kingpin Kamaru Usman.

This crossover matchup presents a fascinating puzzle for handicappers as I weigh a natural middleweight contender against an all-time great testing different waters in the twilight of his career. The action kicks off on July 18 with the main card starting at 6:00 PM ET on Paramount+.

I am looking to isolate value across this entire card. From heavy favorites to live underdogs, here are my UFC Oklahoma City main card predictions.

Latest UFC Oklahoma City Main Card Odds

Odds as of July 17 at Bet365. Check out the best UFC betting apps for UFC Oklahoma City on Saturday.

Fatima Kline at -450 and Chase Hooper at -370 are the two heaviest favorites on the main card, which pushes the value into the method and totals markets rather than the moneyline. Jared Cannonier at +275 and Alberto Montes at +140 are the only live underdog prices worth a look.

UFC Oklahoma City Main Card Predictions

Du Plessis vs. Usman Prediction

Size is the ultimate edge here. Kamaru Usman is stepping up in weight, and while he has competed at middleweight before, Dricus du Plessis is a different animal. The 32-year-old South African will have a significant strength advantage that will be a factor in Usman’s wrestling style.

While Usman had success against Joaquin Buckley, most of his takedowns were trips against the fence rather than open-mat singles and double-legs. Du Plessis will not give him the easy entries that Buckley did, nor will he get pushed against the fence. Usman has made a career out of bullying smaller welterweights and will not have that advantage against ‘Still Knocks.’

Du Plessis enters the cage with a stellar 23-3 career record and a natural middleweight frame that will be entirely too powerful on the feet for Usman to handle over five rounds. He is 5-1 in the UFC against former or future welterweights.

Without a reach deficit to worry about, the sheer volume and physical dominance of du Plessis tip the scales heavily in his favor. I expect him to crush the veteran with forward pressure and secure a decisive victory, either by finish or a clean sweep on the scorecards.

Cannonier vs. Duncan Best Bet

Jared Cannonier just got dominated by a fleet-footed striker in Michael ‘Venom’ Page, and this is a very similar bad matchup for the 42-year-old veteran. At this age, he does not have the movement to close distance against these types of fighters.

Christian Leroy Duncan is incredibly hard to hit and boasts a 14-2 record. Cannonier is not a wrestler by trait, giving Duncan a better chance of keeping this fight on the feet where he can dictate the range with his 79-inch reach. On the feet, ‘CLD’ is faster, more athletic and has more layers to his game than this iteration of Cannonier.

Six of Duncan’s nine UFC fights have gone over 1.5 rounds, and Cannonier has never lost a fight under 1.5 rounds in the UFC at middleweight. I fully expect the Cannonier vs. Duncan Over 1.5 to cash alongside a moneyline ticket for the younger fighter.

• UFC Oklahoma City Pick #2: Christian Leroy Duncan ML and Over 1.5 SGP (-125 at Bet365)

Hooper vs. Ramirez Pick

I am riding with the established UFC veteran in this lightweight contest. This is effectively a tune-up fight for Chase Hooper, who gets a highly favorable matchup against an opponent who is 0-3 in the UFC, with three knockout losses. Mitch Ramirez is a cardio kickboxer who can potentially exploit Hooper’s atrocious striking defense but likely lacks the power to do so.

The biggest key for Hooper will be Ramirez’s takedown defense, which sits at a subpar 25 percent. Ramirez tends to get wild and leave his hips open for the taking, especially when he senses himself down on the cards. As long as he remains patient, wrestling opportunities will be there for Hooper.

However, Ramirez has never been submitted and has shown great submission defense in the UFC, fighting off two high-level grapplers, Thiago Moises and Mike Davis, when they got completely under his chin. As poor as his durability has been on the feet, Ramirez is a very difficult fighter to submit on the ground.

That submission defense is exactly why I am taking the decision rather than a finish. This fight could be a little more competitive than people think, with Hooper controlling once he gets it to the ground but struggling to put Ramirez away.

Ricci vs. Kline Prediction

My read on this strawweight showdown is entirely dependent on the physical metrics. Fatima Kline steps into the cage boasting a 9-1 record and a massive size advantage.

Kline stands 5-foot-6 and carries a 67-inch reach. Tabatha Ricci is significantly smaller, dealing with a five-inch height deficit and a six-inch reach disadvantage. Ricci was notably outstruck in three of her four professional losses, showing a clear vulnerability against longer opponents. Fighting at a size disadvantage is detrimental to Ricci’s game, as ‘Baby Shark’ relies on her strength to complete most of her takedowns.

If Ricci cannot secure Kline on the mats, she will be in a world of trouble on the feet.

Excluding her short-notice debut at featherweight, Kline has more than doubled up all three of her strawweight opponents in significant strikes. Her takedown defense sits at just 50 percent, but she is a talented grappler who trains with flyweight contender Erin Blanchfield. Ricci might get Kline down, but the only fighter who has been able to keep her there so far was the much bigger Jasmine Jasudavicius.

While Kline is a rare finisher in the women’s strawweight division, Ricci has been incredibly durable and difficult to put away. Her only stoppage loss came against former UFC flyweight title challenger Manon Fiorot in her short-notice UFC debut.

McMillen vs. Montes Best Bet

Tommy McMillen is a wild man, but Alberto Montes is coming off back-to-back wins against chaotic fighters in Ricky Turcios and Carlos Calderon. He has shown elite composure against this exact type of opponent.

Montes has sharp striking, particularly his boxing, defense and a sneaky kick game. McMillen might be the bigger fighter, but he throws wide, looping punches and does not manage distance well. As the more intelligent fighter, Montes is great at subtly closing the gap.

If the fight hits the ground, Montes is the much more polished grappler. He is a BJJ black belt and will have a huge edge if he can get to his signature D’Arce or anaconda position.

This is a simultaneous buy-low on an underrated Montes and a sell-high on McMillen, who got dropped twice and nearly had his head ripped off on Dana White’s Contender Series just two fights ago.