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- Saturday’s UFC Winnipeg Prelims feature six fights, including John Castaneda vs Mark Vologdin
- Castaneda is looking to bounce back from back-to-back losses
- See my UFC Winnipeg Prelims picks and predictions, including best bets for Castaneda vs Vologdin and more
The UFC returns to Canada tonight with an action packed card in Winnipeg headlined by the Gilbert Burns vs Mike Malott welterweight belt. Before the Winnipeg fans can sweat the six Main Card fights, they’ll be treated to six prelim bouts, and those matchups feature plenty of betting opportunities for us to take advantage of.
My favorite fight to target is the John Castaneda vs Mark Vologdin catchweight bout, as I see real value on Castandea to snap a mini-two fight losing streak and score a victory.
The UFC Winnipeg Prelims are set to get underway at 5:15 pm ET on Paramount+, with the Main Card fights starting at 8:15 pm ET also on Paramount+.
Here are my UFC Winnipeg Prelims picks and predictions, along with my best bets for Castaneda vs Vologdin and more.
UFC Winnipeg Prelims Picks: John Castaneda Moneyline
There are going to be a lot of people tempted to bet on Vologdin tonight. After all, he’s coming off arguably the best Contender Series fight of all-time, and one of the most exciting bouts at any level in 2025. Vologdin and Adrian Luna Martinetti combined for nearly 300 strikes in an epic war, with Vologdin coming up just short on the judges scorecards. Speaking of short, that’s exactly what Vologdin is at only 5’3″, and I expect him to have trouble overcoming the size disparity in this fight.
Vologdin will try to force his way inside and strike from close range, but Castaneda is a veteran of many wars, and has enough striking skill and savvy to keep him away. Castaneda is also a much more skilled grappler, and Vologdin is very susceptible takedowns, while looking lost on the mat.
Castaneda may not have the power to knock the Russian fire hydrant out, but he can pick him apart on their feet, and pile up the points on the ground to score a decision victory.
UFC Winnipeg Prelims Picks: Jamey-Lyn Horth Method of Victory
- UFC Winnipeg Prelims Prediction #2: Jamey-Lyn Horth to Win by Decision (-105 at DraftKings)
We can’t have a UFC Winnipeg betting card of any sort without at least one Canadian selection, and one of my favorite Canucks to score a victory tonight is Jamey-Lyn Horth. The 36-year-old is getting a little long in the tooth for the Women’s flyweight division, but she’s a bigger, stronger, more powerful fighter than her opponent JJ Aldrich. The American doesn’t do anything particularly well, and has proven to be very hittable.
Aldrich absorbs 4.32 strikes per minute, nearly twice as many as Horth. She isn’t much of a wrestler either boasting significantly worse takedown accuracy (26%) and defense (67%) stats than Horth.
Despite her underwhelming stats, Aldrich has only been knocked out in one of her 20 professional fights. Horth is coming off a finish in her last bout, but she’s much more likely to go the distance in this fight, scoring the more powerful strikes, and dominating any time spent on the mat.
UFC Winnipeg Prelims Picks: Gokhan Saricam Parlay
- UFC Winnipeg Prelims Prediction #3: Gokhan Saricam to Win by KO, TKO or DQ + Under 2.5 Rounds (+300 at Bet365)
Finally, we’re going to take advantage of a Bet365 boost to back Gokhan Saricam to knock out Canadian Tanner Boser in under 2.5 rounds. The wager is being boosted form +275 to +300 for us, and there’s a case to make that the Turk could finish Boser in the 1st.
Saricam has a clear advantage in power and finishing ability, and carries a big size advantage in this fight. He’s also a much more accomplished wrestler, with a vicious ground and pound attack.
As for Boser, he hasn’t fought in nearly three years and is undersized for the heavyweight division. His strikes don’t carry enough pop to damage his bigger opponent, and he was brutally finished in his last defeat.
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