Updated #2 Pick Odds – Who Will Jets Draft Second Overall: Bailey or Reese?

• Arvell Reese is trading at 60 cents to be the #2 pick by the Jets on Thursday
• Reese is back to being the favorite, after he was overtaken in the market by David Bailey last week
• Keep reading for the updated #2 pick odds, plus the answer to who will the Jets Draft second overall?

When it comes to NFL Draft strategy there are two types of drafters. Those who swing for upside and those who play it safe. The ladder route is considered boring and predictable, but it often yields stable results. For what seems like years now, the New York Jets have opted for the ceiling approach, and it looks like they may be trending that way again with pick #2 on Thursday.

Prediction market Kalshi has made Ohio State’s Arvell Reese a significant favorite to be the Jets target, ahead of Texas Tech’s David Bailey. Based on New York’s track record the pricing seems to fit, but there are other reasons to back Reese in this market that I’ll outline below.

Keep reading to see the updated #2 pick odds, plus who I believe the Jets will draft second overall.

Updated #2 Pick Odds

This market has seen some wild movement over the last month in the NFL Draft odds. It started with Reese being a heavy favorite, only to see Bailey over take him last week as -170 chalk. Since that point, money has come pouring back in on Reese, who’s now trading at 60 cents at Kalshi, which is the equivalent of -150 in traditional sports betting terms.

Who Will Jets Draft Second Overall: Bailey or Reese?

Reese’s price has actually come down over the course of the last day, after it peaked at just under 75 cents yesterday (-300). With the odds back down to a reasonable number, the time to bet Reese in this market is now, and here’s why.

Let’s start with the talent on the field. Reese can affect the game in so many different ways. He has incredible football instincts from his linebacker position, and the speed to make plays other guys simply can’t make both against the run and in coverage. Because of his speed, size (6-4, 241 pounds) and burst he’s also an exceptional pass rusher, and that’s the defensive area the Jets are eager to improve the most.

New York finished second last in sacks per game in 2025, which is one of the many reasons why they stood no chance in the Super Bowl odds. Reese is drawing comparisons to Micah Parsons, arguably the best pass rusher in football, and it must be hard to even think about passing on a talent like that. Reese played 58% of his snaps on the edge last season, racking up eight sacks and 27 pressures.

From a pass rushing production standpoint, Bailey outperformed Reese in college, finishing 2025 with 14.5 sacks and a pressure rate over 20% for the third straight year. He’s a safer pick based on his pedigree, but no one is comparing him to one of the greatest pass rushers of the last decade.

Also working in favor of Reese over Bailey, is the Ohio State product is actually a better scheme fit in the Jets 3-4 defense. His incredible get off at the snap would allow Aaron Glenn to deploy him all over the field, and his ability to operate in space make him the more valuable asset. That’s certainly the way draft experts are looking at it, as he’s firmly entrenched at pick number two in our own final NFL Mock Draft.

Last 10 New York Jets 1st Round Draft Picks

Then, there’s the New York factor. The Jets just can’t help themselves when it comes to shiny new toys. They have a long history of drafting for potential rather than production, which hasn’t necessarily yielded the best results. 

Over the last seven years, New York has made 10 first round picks. Of those 10, only 4 are still on the roster, and just one plays on the defensive side of the ball. They routinely shoot for the moon, only to get burned. I’m not saying that will happen with Reese, because his traits and upside are tantalising. What I am predicting though, and how the market is being bet, is that the Jets will draft on the potential of what Reese could become, rather than the proven product that Bailey already is.