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- Saturday’s UFC 321 from Abu Dhabi is headlined by heavyweights Tom Aspinall and Ciryl Gane
- Aspinall owns the UFC record for shortest average fight time at 2 minutes 2 seconds
- Check out my UFC 321 predictions for Aspinall vs Gane and the rest of my favorite Main Card picks
UFC 321 goes down Saturday in Abu Dhabi with the long-awaited return of heavyweight champion Tom Aspinall. The 32-year-old hasn’t fought in well over a year, waiting for a shot at Jon Jones that never materialized. With Jones now retired, Aspinall will make his first undisputed title defense against Ciryl Gane, a fighter Jones made short work of back in 2023.
The prelims are set to get underway at 10:45 am ET / 7:45 am ET on Saturday, with the Main Card fights starting at 2:15 pm PT / 11:15 am ET on Pay Per View.
Here are my UFC 321 predictions for my favorite fights on the card.
Aspinall vs Gane Prediction
Aspinall has a well-earned reputation for ending fights early. All eight of his UFC victories have come inside two rounds, with seven occurring within the first 120 seconds of the fight. The Brit owns the UFC record for shortest average fight time at just 2 minutes and 2 seconds.
His lone defeat was also a short-lived fight, ending in an exploding knee versus Curtis Blaydes, a result he avenged three fights later with a 60-second knockout.
Tale of the Tape
Aspinall is the faster, more powerful striker, and a superior grappler. The ladder skill is what he’ll use to attack and finish Gane, who’s been dominated on the mat in his two defeats. Jones submitted Gane two minutes into their fight, while Ngannou manhandled Gane en route to a unanimous decision.
I’ll take under 1.5 rounds as my main prediction, with an additional bet on Aspinall to win by submission at +275 odds.
- Aspinall vs Gane Picks: Under 1.5 rounds (-130), Aspinall by submission (+275)
Jandiroba vs Dern Prediction
The heavyweight title isn’t the only belt up for grabs on Saturday, as Virna Jandiroba and Mackenzie Dern will square off for the Strawweight crown. Dern is currently -148 on the moneyline, but lately she seems more interested in sunbathing than sparring.
Dern’s social media is littered with her by the pool or in the salon. Quite the contrast from Jandiroba, who’s been grinding in the gym. These two met back in 2020 with Dern earning a decision, but recently Jandiorba’s been the much more impressive fighter.
She’s won each of her past five fights, beating both Yan Xiaonan and Amanda Lemos in her two most recent bouts. Both those fighters have victories over Dern, who’s just 5-4 in her last nine bouts.
Talent-wise, Jandiroba vs Dern are incredibly close. I’ll gladly take plus-money on Jandiroba, as she’s never been finished and will be much better prepared than her opponent.
- Jandiroba vs Dern Pick: Jandiroba moneyline (+124)
Volkov vs Almeida Prediction
For my last pick, I’m going chalk with Jailton Almeida over Alexander Volkov. Almeida is one of the best heavyweight grapplers, and Volkov’s takedown defense is his biggest flaw.
Look no further than the Russian’s last fight versus a wrestling specialist. Curtis Blaydes brought him down 14 times en route to a win. Sure, that was five years ago, but Blaydes isn’t in the same grappling tier as Almeida.
Almedia is going to drag Volkov down to the mat repeatedly, chewing up the clock in a 3 round fight. From the mat, he’ll dominate position and either submit the Russian or earn a convincing decision.
- Volkov vs Almeida Pick: Almeida moneyline (-185)
UFC 321 Abu Dhabi – Main Card
Odds as of October 24th at DraftKings. Check out the best UFC betting apps for UFC Fight Night on Saturday.
In terms of the UFC 321 Abu Dhabi odds, no fighter on the main card is garnering more love than Umar Nurmagomedov. He opened as a -430 favorite over Mario Bautista, but that number has been bet to -625 as of Friday night. Nurmagomedov has just one blemish on his resume, and should have little trouble getting Bautista on the mat and controlling the fight from there.
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