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- The 126th US Open tees off at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club on Thursday
- Justin Rose has missed the cut in five of his last six appearances
- See the US Open odds and picks to make/miss the cut, below
The US Open, aka golf’s ultimate test, will be contested this week at one of the hardest courses on the planet. The best players in the world have landed in Long Island to take on Shinnecock Hills, a venue where only three players in modern history have finished under par across the four times the tournament has been contested here.
Experts are predicting another brutal test of golf this week, which guarantees big names will be going home early. Below, you’ll find the latest US Open odds and picks to make and miss the cut, and the analysis behind each selection.
US Open Odds to Make/Miss the Cut
World #1 Scottie Scheffler boasts the shortest odds to make the cut at -800, and the longest odds to trunk slam at +500. Scheffler’s miss the cut price is nearly as long as his US Open odds, which is wild given the volatility of this tournament.
A little further down the board we find Justin Rose, who I’m fading despite back-to-back top-10 finishes at the year’s first two Majors.
US Open Picks to Miss the Cut
- Justin Rose to Miss the Cut (+162 at bet365)
Not only has Rose been red-hot at the Majors this year, he’s also a former champion of this event. Nevertheless, his recent track record at the US Open is abhorrent and there are serious red flags in his game at the moment.
Let’s start off with his tournament history. Since winning the prestigious tournament in 2013, he’s been the ultimate boom or bust player, and lately it’s been way more bust. He’s missed the cut seven times in his last 10 appearances, including fives times in the last six years. In between there are a pair of top-10 results, but when he’s not on his floor drops out completely.
Success at Shinnecock Hills hingest heavily on short game, and Rose’s has disappeared. He’s dropped strokes around the green in nine of his past 13 tournaments, and has lost strokes with his putter in nine of his last 14 events.
Even the best ball strikers are going be penalized at this track, and Rose’s short game struggles and wayward driving (65th in strokes gained off the tee this year) will ultimately end his US Open run early.
US Open Picks to Make the Cut
- Make the Cut Parlay (+234 at bet365): Schauffele, Fleetwood, Fitzpatrick & Henley
I may be bearish on Rose this week, but there are four players I feel are very safe to include in a make the cut parlay, starting with Xander Schauffele. The two-time Major champ is 9-for-9 in made cuts at the US Open, with seven top-10 finishes. Schauffele ranks top-16 in the field in strokes gained tee-to-green, off-the-tee and approach this year, and his patient style is ideal for a test of this magnitude.
Next up, I’m targeting Tommy Fleetwood. The Englishman has three top-11 results in his last four starts, and is one of the most accurate drivers on the planet. He’ll need that elite trait to keep him out of trouble at Shinneock Hills, just like it did in 2018 when he carded a Sunday 63 at this grueling track.
The third leg of my parlay is 2022 champ Matt Fitzpatrick. Fitzy leads the field in approach this year, and ranks second in strokes gained tee-to-green. He also possesses a world class short game that can bail him out of trouble, and has a ton of experience playing links style courses like this one, having grown up over in Europe.
I’ll round out the parlay with Russell Henley, who shared the first round lead at Shinnecock Hills in 2018. Henley has finished 14th or better in three straight US Open’s, and is fresh off a third place result at this year’s Masters. Add the four names up, and I’m looking at a +234 payout if each player makes the weekend.
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