Utah State vs New Mexico Expert Picks & Predictions

• New Mexico Lobos is 12-0 at The Pit
• New Mexico forward Tomislav Buljan creates a significant possession advantage for the home favorites.
• See why the smart money is laying the points with the Lobos and targeting the Under in this pivotal Mountain West clash

The Mountain West Conference title race heats up tonight as the New Mexico Lobos host the Utah State Aggies. Tip-off is set for 11 pm, ET (Fox Sports 1).

The Lobos and Aggies are both 9-2 in conference play, sitting just a half-game behind San Diego State for the top spot. Neither team is ranked in the AP Poll, but both have RPIs in top 35.

New Mexico looks to protect its 12-0 record at The Pit and extend a four-game winning streak. The Lobos are a 1.5-point home favorite.

Utah State arrives in Albuquerque as a formidable road underdog, riding a three-game winning streak. With one of the nation’s most hostile environments serving as the backdrop, bettors face a tight market in a game that could redefine the MWC hierarchy.

Utah State vs New Mexico Predictions & Best Bets

Below are the best value plays for Wednesday night.

Spread Pick: New Mexico -1.5 (-114) at DraftKings

While Utah State possesses a potent offense spearheaded by MJ Collins Jr., fading New Mexico at The Pit has been hit or miss. The Lobos are 5-5 ATS as a home favorite, and with the spread sitting at less than a single possession (-1.5), the situational value heavily favors the home squad to simply win the game.

The deciding factor in this matchup is New Mexico’s dominance in the paint. Forward Tomislav Buljan operates as the anchor of the Lobos’ frontcourt, averaging a double-double with 12.4 points and a conference-leading 10.1 rebounds per game. His ability to control the glass gives New Mexico a distinct advantage in generating second-chance opportunities. Utah State’s primary rebounder, Garry Clark (5.38 RPG), faces a significant mismatch in the box-out battle. In a contest projected to be a one-score game, New Mexico’s ability to extend possessions and feed off the home crowd makes them the sharp play.

Over/Under Pick: Under 157.5 (-110) at FanDuel

The total is set at a lofty 157.5, a number that respects both offensive outputs but ignores the defensive intensity typical of first-place conference battles. While the public often chases points, the rebounding metrics suggest limited second-chance points for the visitors, which kills over-betting potential.

Utah State is efficient, with Mason Falslev shooting 52.4% from the field and Collins hitting at a 51.2% clip. However, New Mexico’s backcourt defense is predicated on disruption. Uriah Tenette acts as a defensive cornerback, leading the team with 32 steals (1.52 per game). If Tenette and Deyton Albury (26 steals) can disrupt the Aggies’ rhythm, this game will likely grind to a halt in the half-court. Expect a playoff atmosphere where every possession is contested, keeping the score below the high 150s.

Public Betting Splits

The college basketball betting public has taken a firm stance on who controls the narrative at The Pit. Despite the tight opening line, the capital flowing into the market suggests overwhelming confidence in the home team.

Moneyline & Spread Sentiment

There is zero ambiguity in the moneyline market for Wednesday. The New Mexico Lobos are drawing massive support, accounting for 81.48% of total tickets.

More importantly, the handle backs this sentiment aggressively. A staggering 84.14% of the money is wagered on the Lobos to win outright. This alignment between ticket count and handle indicates a “sharp consensus,” where both casual bettors and high-volume players agree on the outcome. The market is clearly buying into the “fortress” reputation of The Pit as the primary differentiator.

Total (Over/Under) Splits

In contrast to the side, the total market is a battleground.

• Over: 52.76% of bets | 53.1% of money
• Under: 47.24% of bets | 46.9% of money

The public shows a slight preference for the Over, likely driven by the raw scoring averages of both programs (83.6 PPG vs 81.5 PPG). However, this creates a contrarian opportunity for the Under 157.5. The slight lean toward the Over ignores the defensive ratcheting that occurs in late-season conference games with title implications. We are fading the public majority here, banking on defensive intensity over offensive efficiency.

Utah State vs New Mexico Key Stats

Pace and Defense

Despite both teams averaging north of 80 points, the defensive metrics align with our Under 157.5 prediction. Both squads allow exactly 68.0 points per game.

Utah State relies on the surgical scoring of MJ Collins Jr. (18.6 PPG) and Mason Falslev (15.9 PPG), both shooting over 51% from the floor. However, New Mexico plays tough perimeter defense. Uriah Tenette (1.52 steals) and Deyton Albury (1.24 steals) excel at forcing turnovers. If the Lobos can disrupt the passing lanes, Utah State’s high-efficiency offense will sputter.

Utah State vs New Mexico Odds

With first place in the Mountain West on the line, the betting market reflects the coin-flip nature of this contest, weighted slightly by New Mexico’s home-court advantage.

• Moneyline: New Mexico -130 | Utah State +108
• Spread: New Mexico -1.5 (-114) | Utah State +1.5 (-106)
• Total: Over/Under 157.5 (-110)

Odds as of February 4, 2026, at 12:49 PM ET from DraftKings Sportsbook.

The spread of 1.5 essentially signals a “pick’em” scenario, with the vig leaning toward the home team. The total of 157.5 suggests a fast pace, though our analysis points toward a defensive struggle.

Implied Winning Probabilities

Removing the vig (juice) from the consensus lines gives us the true implied probability for each team:

• New Mexico Lobos: 54.0%
• Utah State Aggies: 46.0%

Payout Calculation

For bettors looking to play the moneyline at DraftKings:

• A $20 wager on New Mexico (-130) to win outright returns $15.38 in profit ($35.38 total).
• A $20 wager on Utah State (+108) to pull the upset returns $21.60 in profit ($41.60 total).