Wimbledon Picks & Predictions Today

• What are the best bets on Tuesday’s Wimbledon card?
• My analysis isolates actionable value bets across moneyline, spread, and totals
• See my Wimbledon picks and expert predictions for June 30

The stage is set for a thrilling day of men’s singles action at the All England Club on Tuesday, June 30. The opening serves for this first-round slate take place at 6:00 am ET, with the day’s final scheduled matchup getting underway circa 11:30 am ET (Stan Wawrinka vs Matteo Berrettini).

Tuesday’s features a mix of heavy favorites and tightly contested pick’ems. Top-tier contenders Alex de Minaur, Alexander Zverev, and Taylor Fritz, all step onto the grass as overwhelming favorites. I am eschewing the massive juice and hunting for value in the derivative markets.

The first section below summarizes my three Wimbledon best bets for June 30. Under the table, find my in-depth analysis for each pick, followed by the full odds for all June 30 matches.

Wimbledon Picks & Best Bets (June 30)

After a subpar 1-2 start on Monday, I am backing one heavy favorite to cover a sizable spread, the under in another mismatch, and a slim moneyline favorite.

Looking for the tournament outrights? Go to SBD’s odds to win Wimbledon.

De Minaur vs Burruchaga Pick: de Minaur -8.5 Games (-118 at Kalshi)

I am backing Alex de Minaur to cover the -8.5 game spread. The Tennis Abstract highlights the disparity between the players on grass. De Minaur sits No. 9 overall in Elo at 1960.8 and owns the No. 8 grass Elo at 1833.8. Burruchaga, by comparison, is No. 101 overall at 1711.2 and falls all the way to No. 137 in grass Elo at 1550.9.

The recent-results profile supports laying the games with the favorite. De Minaur has already banked a strong grass sample this swing, going 5-2 across Hertogenbosch and London with straight-set wins over Benjamin Bonzi, Adrian Mannarino, Gabriel Diallo, and Denis Shapovalov. Even when he has lost on grass, it has generally come against capable tour-level opposition, such as Brandon Nakashima and Kamil Majchrzak, not players still trying to prove they can consistently translate Challenger-level success to this surface.

His 2025 Wimbledon run also reinforces the matchup fit: he beat Roberto Carballes Baena in straight sets, Arthur Cazaux in four sets, and August Holmgren in straight sets before running into Novak Djokovic.

Burruchaga’s latest grass result was a three-set Eastbourne loss to Arthur Fery, and his 2025 Wimbledon qualifying run included a dominant win over Dmitry Popko followed immediately by a 6-1, 6-4 loss to James McCabe.

Most of Burruchaga’s positive momentum has come in clay Challengers or ATP clay spots, where he can grind longer points and protect his weaker first-strike patterns. That is a problem against de Minaur, whose return speed, court coverage, and flat redirecting are amplified on grass.

If de Minaur gets ahead early, Burruchaga’s limited ability to hold serve on grass makes this spread very coverable in a straight-sets script.

Fritz vs Lajovic Pick: Under 33.5 Games (-120 at bet365)

I am targeting under 33.5 games in Fritz vs Lajovic. Fritz is a steep -1408 moneyline favorite, carrying an implied probability of 93.36%.

The Elo profile is decisive once surface is isolated. Fritz ranks No. 19 overall at 1909.0, but his grass Elo jumps to No. 6 at 1856.6, which is one of the clearest surface upgrades on the card. Lajovic is No. 159 overall at 1620.0, and his grass Elo is just 1487.5, ranking No. 204.

That leaves Fritz with a 369.1-point grass-Elo advantage. Lajovic’s clay Elo is far stronger than his grass mark, so this is another matchup where the surface tilts the favorite’s baseline edge into a potential rout.

The recent grass results strengthen the under case. Fritz has already played nine grass matches this swing across Stuttgart and Halle, going 7-2 with high-end wins over Alexander Zverev, Ben Shelton, and Alexander Bublik. Several of those victories required him to navigate tiebreak pressure, but the key is that they came against opponents with far more grass-court first-strike pop than Lajovic brings.

When Fritz has controlled the matchup on this surface, the scorelines have stayed compact: 6-2, 6-4 over Marozsan and 6-4, 6-4 over Bublik are the templates I want for this handicap.

Lajovic’s qualifying run featured straight-set wins over Lukas Neumayer and Chris Rodesch, but it ended with a five-set loss to Vilius Gaubas. He’s only in the draw because Jack Draper withdrew, a massive stroke of luck for Fritz.

Lajovic’s broader 2026 profile is heavy on clay and Challenger Tour results. Before the grass qualifiers, he had losses to Jurij Rodionov, Jan Choinski, Pierre-Hugues Herbert, Arthur Rinderknech, Henrique Rocha, and Oriol Roca Batalla across clay events. His 2025 Wimbledon main-draw loss to Billy Harris was also a routine 6-3, 6-2, 6-4 defeat, clearing only 25 total games.

At 33.5, we have room for a straightforward Fritz win even if one set lands at 7-5 or 7-6. A 6-4, 6-4, 6-4 result is only 30 games, and even a 7-6, 6-4, 6-4 finish stays Under at 33.

Fritz’s serve should create enough cheap holds, and Lajovic’s limited grass-court aggression makes it difficult to see him consistently extending return games or stealing a set.

Moutet vs Giron Pick: Giron Moneyline (-113 at Kalshi)

My best moneyline bet on the card is Marcos Giron at -113, which carries a 53% implied win probability. Recent form, head-to-head results, and grass-court bona fides all tilt toward the American.

The Tennis Abstract Elo numbers keep this from being a pure form read. Moutet owns the stronger overall Elo, ranking No. 76 at 1744.7, while Giron is No. 95 at 1718.2. But the surface split tightens the match considerably: Moutet’s grass Elo is 1647.6, ranking No. 65, while Giron’s is 1621.9, ranking No. 90. That is only a 25.7-point grass gap, much smaller than their overall separation.

Just as important, Giron carries the better hard-court Elo and more conventional first-strike patterns, which I trust more on quicker lawns than Moutet’s touch-heavy, rhythm-breaking style.

Moutet’s current grass swing has been uneven at best. He is 1-3 on the surface in his latest run, losing 6-3, 6-4 to Nick Kyrgios in Stuttgart, 6-4, 6-3 to Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in London and 7-5, 6-4 to Abdullah Shelbayh in Mallorca. His lone grass win in that stretch came in a tight three-setter against Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard, 5-7, 6-4, 7-5.

Zooming out, the Frenchman has also dropped eight of his last ten matches, overall. That matters because Moutet’s game is built on disruption, touch, and changes of pace; when his timing is off, he can bleed service games quickly.

Giron’s grass results are not spotless, but they are more competitive than the record suggests. He beat Roberto Bautista Agut in Stuttgart and Daniel Evans and Charles Broom in British grass qualifying, then pushed Ben Shelton, Rinky Hijikata, Ignacio Buse, Jan Choinski, and Jack Draper into tiebreakers or deciding sets. The Draper loss, in particular, was a respectable 6-4, 7-6 defeat against a much bigger grass-court weapon.

Giron also has the recent head-to-head edge, beating Moutet 4-6, 6-3, 6-4 in Phoenix in March.

The matchup logic is straightforward: Moutet can make this awkward with lefty spins, drop shots, and tempo changes, but Giron’s steadier first-strike patterns and baseline discipline are better suited to handling those disruptions over best-of-five sets. At a modest price, the Giron ML is the actionable side.

Wimbledon Odds for Tuesday, June 30 – Men’s Singles Matches

The odds in the table above are all from bet365 as of June 29. Odds are always subject to change.