Wimbledon Predictions & Expert Picks on July 2

• I target three heavy favorites to cover sizable spreads on the grass at Wimbledon on Thursday
• Zverev and Fritz offer solid value to cover -7.5 games
• See my three favorite Wimbledon predictions, picks, and best bets today (July 2)

The men’s round of 64 at Wimbledon rolls on this Thursday. The July 2 schedule starts with a quartet of matches at 6:00 am ET and finishes with Jakub Mensik vs Grigor Dimitrov circa 11:30 am ET.

Today’s card features extreme mismatches with elite contenders Alexander Zverev, Taylor Fritz, and Alex de Minaur poised to overwhelm lesser opponents.

The table below summarizes by three Wimbledon best bets for Thursday, July 2, along with the best-available odds for each pick. Under the table, find my analytical rationale for the picks and, lastly, the full odds table for men’s singles today.

Wimbledon Predictions & Expert Picks Today (July 2)

Two of my three picks on Thursday can be found at plus-money at prediction site Kalshi. If you’re confined to traditional sportsbooks, you’re going to have to lay some juice on the same picks, in which case I’d sit them out.

Readers who don’t live in a Kalshi region can try SBD’s exclusive Polymarket sign-up bonus or check out our list of the best prediction markets.

With Carlos Alcaraz sidelined by injury and Jannik Sinner show signs of weakness, Zverev is moving up the odds to win Wimbledon. He is now trading at 10¢ at Kalshi (equal to +909 odds). He recently claimed his first career Grand Slam title at the French Open.

Alexander Zverev vs Valentin Royer Prediction: Zverev -7.5 Games (48¢ / +108 at Kalshi)

Zverev’s -3333 moneyline is far too short to bet, but I am still eager to back the favorite against an overmatched underdog. Zverev -7.5 priced at 48 cents on Kalshi, equal to +108 odds.

The Tennis Abstract Elo profile backs up why this is more than just a name-brand mismatch. Zverev is No. 3 in overall Elo at 2099.7 and No. 4 in grass Elo at 1913.6, while Royer is No. 141 overall at 1640.6 and No. 119 on grass at 1572.7. That creates a 459-point overall Elo gap and a 341-point grass-specific gap.

Royer beat 24-year-old world #202 Harry Wendelken in four sets in his Wimbledon opener, but the class jump is severe. Zverev’s first serve, baseline weight, and top-four grass rating should create repeated scoreboard pressure.

Even if Royer holds up for stretches, Zverev has enough return quality to find multiple breaks and separate by a significant margin before the final point.

Taylor Fritz vs Patrick Kypson Prediction: Fritz -7.5 Games (-110 at bet365)

Fritz is lined at -1205 on the moneyline, which implies a 92.34% win probability, while Kypson comes back as a massive +1000 longshot. The vig-free calculations yield a 91.04% true market probability for Fritz. My probability model pushes him higher at 93.9% but his moneyline is still too short to play. Instead, I’m laying 7.5 games with the chalk again.

Fritz holds the No. 19 overall Elo (1909.0) but he jumps to No. 6 in grass Elo at 1856.6. Kypson is No. 142 overall at 1640.5 and just No. 212 in grass Elo at 1482.5. That 374-point grass Elo gap is the core of the handicap.

Fritz opened Wimbledon with a clean 6-3, 6-4, 6-3 win over Dusan Lajovic, a nine-game margin that would have cleared this number. Kypson deserves respect for beating Mackenzie McDonald in four sets, but his grass résumé is thin. Fritz brings the bigger serve-return combination on this surface and I don’t expect this match to be all that competitive.

Alex de Minaur vs Adrian Mannarino Prediction: de Minaur -6.5 Games (46¢ / +117 at Kalshi)

De Minaur is priced at -500, with Mannarino coming back at +350 to win straight-up, and the independent probability baseline still puts de Minaur around the 80% range to win. I am not interested in tying up bankroll on that moneyline, but the 6.5-game spread is much more usable at de facto +117 odds at Kalshi.

The matchup gives de Minaur multiple paths to margin. His speed, return depth, and ability to redirect pace are especially valuable against Mannarino, who can struggle to hold comfortably when opponents consistently make him play one extra ball.

The Elo profile supports the pick: de Minaur is No. 9 in overall Elo at 1960.8 and No. 8 in grass Elo at 1833.8, while Mannarino is No. 130 overall at 1673.4 and No. 61 on grass at 1652.8. That gives de Minaur a 287-point overall Elo edge and a 181-point grass-specific edge. Mannarino’s grass number is respectable for his ranking because his flat lefty patterns play well on low-bouncing courts, but the gap still points clearly toward de Minaur as the significantly stronger player.

The recent grass results strengthen the case for a decisive de Minaur victory. He opened Wimbledon with a straight-sets win over Roman Andres Burruchaga, dropping only six total games after a tight first set. More importantly, he already handled this exact matchup on grass at Hertogenbosch on June 13, beating Mannarino 6-4, 6-0, a result that would have covered -9.5 in just two sets.

That encounter showed how quickly de Minaur’s return pressure can turn Mannarino’s low-pace patterns into short service games.

Mannarino also started Wimbledon sharply with a 6-2, 6-4, 6-1 win over Titouan Droguet, so I am not dismissing his grass comfort, but his lead-up included a 6-2, 6-2 loss to Nuno Borges and a straight-sets loss to Arthur Fery in London. With de Minaur holding the fresher head-to-head grass blowout, the stronger Elo profile, and the more reliable return game, I have confidence he’ll dispatch the aging Frenchmen relatively quickly.

Wimbledon Odds for July 2 Matches

Unless otherwise noted, odds presented above are from bet365. Kalshi prices are labeled where used. Pre-match betting odds are dynamic and subject to change up until the first serve.

Before locking in your slips, here is a complete look at the betting lines for today’s loaded Wimbledon card. I have provided the moneyline odds, alongside the exact lines and prices for the game spread and total games markets.