2026 FIFA World Cup Group H Odds & Picks to Win

Spain are massive favorites to secure first place in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Even though Marcelo Bielsa’s Uruguay could potentially give them a run for their money, at the end of the day, Spain shouldn’t have problems cruising to first place in a favorable schedule.

Odds to Win World Cup Group H

With a 79% implied probability and -376 odds, Spain have the best odds among any of the 12 group-winner favorites at the 2026 World Cup. This isn’t a surprise, as La Furia Roja share a group with underperforming Uruguay, newcomer Cape Verde, and overmatched Saudi Arabia.

Uruguay have the second-best odds to win the group, but at an implied probability of 18% and +456 odds, it would be a monumental upset if they were to finish first ahead of Spain. 

Cape Verde and Saudi Arabia share the same implied probability (2%) and odds (+4900) and, even if you’re among the bettors wondering how to pick World Cup underdogs, they aren’t the teams you should be targeting.

Odds and prices as of June 5 at Kalshi. If you don’t live in a Kalshi region, check out SBD’s list of top World Cup betting sites. 

Making Sense of Spain’s Short Group H Odds

Having odds of nearly -400 to win the group when the tournament hasn’t even started yet goes to show just how big of a favorite Spain is against a field of underwhelming, underperforming and relatively inexperienced teams. 

The reality is that Spain is widely seen as one of the biggest candidates to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, and our World Cup public betting data shows as much. They’re first in bet% and handle%, ahead of France, England and a host of other contenders, so the public trusts them to reach the latter stages of the tournament. With that in mind, these odds aren’t surprising, and there’s enough tactical and statistical evidence to support this claim.

Spain cruised through the UEFA World Cup Qualifiers and were one of the most dominant teams in Europe. Even though their group was relatively easy, as their toughest opponent was Turkey, they still handled their business with ease in a zone that also featured Georgia and Bulgaria. 

Spain posted a W5, D1 mark with 21 goals scored and just two conceded. The only two goals allowed came in a 2-2 draw with Turkey, and that was when they had already clinched their WC berth. As if that dominant run through the qualifiers wasn’t enough, Luis de la Fuente’s men are undefeated in their last 29 games over the course of 90 minutes (W20, D9), even if a 1-1 draw against Iraq on June 4 might have created some cause for concern.

Form and results aside, it’s hard not to consider Spain a contender — and the biggest favorite to win this group — when looking at their squad. Led by a strong core of FC Barcelona players that includes Lamine Yamal, Dani Olmo and Pedri, La Roja is among the most talented and deepest teams in the world. Yamal is expected to be fit for the tournament opener against Saudi Arabia on June 15, and after a 2025-26 season in which he averaged one goal contribution per game in LaLiga, he could be a dark-horse candidate in the World Cup Golden Boot odds.

Throw in a pair of elite full-backs in Pedro Porro and Marc Cucurella, the best goalkeeper in the Premier League in David Raya and enough depth in midfield that Fabián Ruiz might come off the bench, and it’s easy to see why Spain are massive favorites in the World Cup winner odds, not only as the Group H winner.

Is Uruguay a Realistic Threat to Spain in Group H?

Uruguay shouldn’t have problems reaching the Round of 32, as they should have excellent World Cup game odds to come out on top when they face Cape Verde and Saudi Arabia.

But it’s one thing to face two teams that have recorded a combined four wins in World Cup history, and a completely different one to face the reigning European champions. Even though Bielsa teams tend to overachieve and play with intensity, that hasn’t been the case with La Celeste, as they have struggled to show the form that made them one of the most exciting teams in the 2024 Copa America.

The loss of Giorgian De Arrascaeta through injury and the subpar form of stalwarts such as José María Giménez, Darwin Núñez and Ronald Araujo should conspire against their chances as well. Federico Valverde remains an elite midfielder, but he won’t have a lot of support. And while Uruguay should be a strong contender to qualify past the group stage, they simply won’t have enough to upset Spain.