Best MLB Home Run Picks & Today

Today’s 15-game MLB slate offers a wealth of opportunities for home run bettors, featuring a mix of intriguing pitching matchups and highly favorable hitting environments.

When searching for plus-money value in the HR prop market, the MLB park factors are always a big part of the analysis. That said, two my three picks today are playing in relatively home run-averse stadiums: Sutter Health Park (30th in HR allowed) and Nationals Park (17th). So it’s crucial to find the longest odds possible. The third is at hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park (5th).

Below, I break down my top home run predictions across today’s slate.

Home Run Picks Today

My three HR picks today range from +245 to +335. In terms of start time, first pitch in Marlins/Phillies is set for 6:40 pm ET, Nationals/Royals at 6:45 pm ET, and Pirates /Athletics at 9:40 pm ET.

Kalshi prices as of 10:14 am ET. Claim SBD’s exclusive Kalshi sign-up bonus before making your home run picks today.

Home Run Pick #1: Kyle Schwarber (28¢ / +257) – Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins

Kyle Schwarber has been a premier power threat all season, boasting 24 home runs and a robust .563 slugging percentage to go along with a 93.0 mph average exit velocity. Over his last 10 games, the veteran slugger has been incredibly hot. He has smashed six home runs while posting an absurd 1.000 slugging percentage and elevating his average exit velocity to an elite 97.4 mph.

Facing Miami Marlins projected starter Tyler Phillips, Schwarber has a great chance to keep his power surge going. I am targeting this matchup because Citizens Bank Park sits as a solid environment for offense. The venue ranks fifth overall park factor and fifth in home runs allowed over the past three seasons, providing a very capable backdrop for Schwarber to leave the yard again tonight at a 28¢ price.

James Wood (23¢ / +335) – Washington Nationals vs Kansas City Royals

James Wood continues to assert his dominance at the plate, tallying 20 home runs on the season alongside a .560 slugging percentage and a blistering 95.7 mph average exit velocity. His recent form indicates he is still locked in. He has hit four home runs over his last 10 contests with a .763 slugging percentage.

Wood is in a prime spot tonight facing Kansas City Royals probable pitcher Michael Wacha. Wood is 2-for-5 lifetime against Wacha with a walk (though neither hit was a homer). Nationals Park is a solid middle-of-the-pack stadium in terms of park factor.

Nick Kurtz (28¢ / +257) – Pittsburgh Pirates vs Athletics

Nick Kurtz brings a highly imposing season power profile to tonight’s matchup, having launched 18 home runs with a .562 slugging percentage and a 93.9 mph average exit velocity. The Athletics slugger has been on an absolute tear recently, racking up seven homers over his last 10 games. During this span, he recorded a massive .921 slugging percentage and maintained a 94.0 mph exit velocity.

He draws a highly favorable matchup against Pittsburgh Pirates starter Mitch Keller. The ballpark is less than ideal – Sutter Health Park gives up the fewest HR per game on average over the last three seasons – but Kurtz has the kind of power to overcome the dimensions.