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- The Toronto Blue Jays are -122 road favorites in the rubber match of their 3-game set with the Chicago Cubs
- Toronto has picked up wins in four of its last five starts
- Read below for the my Blue Jays vs Cubs picks, predictions, updated odds and betting splits
It’s the rubber match of a 3-game interleauge set between the Toronto Blue Jays and Chicago Cubs.
After Chicago blasted them 16-2 in the opener, the Jays exacted revenge with an 8-6 win Saturday, setting up the deciding matchup Sunday.
The books are leaning towards the visiting Blue Jays on the MLB odds, as they have ripped off wins in four of their last five.
First pitch goes this afternoon at 2:20pm ET from Wrigley Field in Chicago, with MLB TV providing the broadcast coverage.
TOR Blue Jays vs CHI Cubs Picks
Dylan Cease Over 6.5 Pitcher Strikeouts (-135 at bet365)
Averaging an elite 13.56 K/9 this season, asking him to secure seven punchouts is a highly manageable target.
Daulton Varsho Over 0.5 Hits (-160 at bet365)
He boasts a 100% success rate against Chicago recently, exceeding 0.5 hits in five straight games against them.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr Over 0.5 RBIs (+210 at bet365)
The slugger has exceeded 0.5 RBIs in three of his last four games.
Blue Jays vs Cubs Prediction
- Best Bet: Blue Jays ML (-125 at bet365)
Toronto holds a distinct advantage in the MLB probable pitchers that makes them my pick to win outright.
Dylan Cease has been an absolute nightmare for opposing batters this season. He takes the mound boasting an elite 2.71 ERA to pair with an underlying 2.37 FIP that validates his stellar production.
He has been an absolute strikeout artist this season, stifling opposing lineups to a .209 batting average and a blistering 13.56 K/9 rate across 73 innings pitched.
Conversely, Chicago starter Shota Imanaga has been respectable but more hittable, bringing a 4.26 ERA into this afternoon’s contest.
Imanaga has hit a rough patch. Across his previous 10 outings, the Cubs starter has labored to a 5.31 ERA, and his opponent batting average has ballooned to .249. His diminished strikeout rate (8.12 K/9) and increased vulnerability make him a risky proposition this afternoon.
Offensively, a glaring mismatch emerges when looking at season-long data. Chicago averages a robust 4.80 runs per game at home.
Conversely, Toronto has struggled to generate consistent run support away from Rogers Centre, plating just 3.87 runs per road game. However, I expect Cease to neutralize Chicago’s home-field advantage today.
Toronto’s pitching edge makes them the clear choice to secure the road victory.
Blue Jays vs Cubs Odds & Betting Splits
The graphic above shows the best available odds, which are subject to change. Be sure to use the BetMGM promo code to bet on Blue Jays vs Cubs or any other MLB game.
The betting market currently favors Toronto, pricing them at -122 on the moneyline at DraftKings, while Chicago sits as +108 home underdogs to win ourtight at FanDuel.
As for the spread, taking Toronto to win by at least two runs pays out at nice +145 odds, from bet365, but they’re not so generous giving the bettor -170 odds, as they are getting 1.5 runs.
The total is set at a remarkably low 6.5 runs, which is a testament to the elite starting pitching matchup on tap. Under bettors should look at Fanduel, where the line is set at 7.0 runs, which pays out at -128 odds.
Looking at the MLB public betting splits, and like this series, the betting public is split on this one.
On the moneyline, it’s all Cubs, with bettors making 45% of the bets, but accounting for 77% of the money — meaning there are some big wagers out there.
The spread is more for the Blue Jays, who are getting 48% of the bets and 73% of the money.
The total is far more lopsided, with the public putting 95% of the bets on Over 6.5 runs, dropping 96% of the money on that.