Brewers vs Braves Predictions, Picks & Betting Splits

• It’s a battle of division leaders as the Milwaukee Brewers open a set with the Atlanta Braves
• Milwaukee is a -180 road favorite, as Atlanta has just one win in its last seven games
• Read below for the my Brewers vs Braves prediction, picks, updated odds and betting splits

In what could be a preview of the National League Championship series, the Milwaukee Brewers (45-26), NL Central Division leaders, hit the road to take on the NL East-leading Atlanta Braves (46-27).

Atlanta is struggling, having dropped six of its last seven, and will have to deal with stud Jacob Misiorowski and his electric arm in the opener. Those are both factors as to why the Braves are home dogs in the MLB odds.

First pitch goes tonight at 7:15pm ET from Truist Park in Atlanta, with MLB TV providing the broadcast coverage.

Read below as I share my Brewers vs Braves prediction, picks, updated odds and betting splits.

Brewers vs Braves Prediction

• Best Bet: Brewers ML (-170 on Caesars)

I give Milwaukee a distinct advantage with the MLB probable pitchers.

Jacob Misiorowski takes the ball sporting a microscopic 1.35 ERA and 0.74 WHIP across 87.0 innings of work. Opposing hitters are managing a mere .140 batting average against the right-hander.

While Martin Perez has been effective for Atlanta with a 3.08 ERA, matching zeroes with Misiorowski is a tall order.

Misiorowski is putting together a spectacular campaign. His underlying metrics support his surface-level dominance, highlighted by a stellar 1.68 FIP. No Braves batters have prior history against him, meaning they will be forced to adjust to his elite velocity on the fly.

Conversely, Perez relies heavily on contact management. His 3.82 FIP indicates he has benefited from excellent fielding behind him, though his ability to limit damage keeps his squad competitive every time he pitches.

The most glaring mismatch lies in offensive efficiency. The Braves lead the majors in home average exit velocity (89.6 mph) but rank an underwhelming 17th in runs per game (4.40).

They simply struggle to manufacture runs on the basepaths. Meanwhile, the Brewers operate efficiently, leading all away teams with 1.16 stolen bases per game and ranking fourth in road runs per game (5.22).

I expect the road favorites to grind out a victory behind their dominant ace.

MIL Brewers vs ATL Braves Expert Picks

Jacob Misiorowski Over 7.5 Strikeouts (-150 at DraftKings): Misiorowski generates an elite 13.55 strikeouts per nine innings. Facing a lineup that has struck out 576 times this season, he should easily eclipse the 7.5 mark.

William Contreras Over 1.5 Total Bases (+124 at FanDuel): Contreras averages 1.13 hits per game while slugging .404. Against a contact-oriented pitcher like Perez, expect the backstop to find the gaps for extra bases.

Brewers vs Braves Odds & Betting Splits

The graphic above shows the best available odds, which are subject to change. Be sure to use the BetMGM promo code to bet on Brewers vs Braves or any other MLB game.

Despite playing on the road, Milwaukee enters as a solid -174 moneyline favorite at FanDuel. The home squad finds itself in a rare spot as +155 underdogs (at bet365), reflecting the immense respect the market has for Misiorowski.

The primary lines have held relatively steady. The runline opened at -1.5 for the visitors, with the associated juice shifting slightly from +105 down to +100. The moneyline ticked up in Milwaukee’s favor from an opening number of -165 to the current -170.

The game total opened at 7.5 runs with the juice shaded to the Over (-114) and remains frozen there. Given the lopsided public action, it would not be surprising to see this line bump up to 8.0 before the first pitch.

Looking at the MLB public betting splits, and this might be one of the few times you’ll see the public this much against the Braves. The public is hammering the runline, with 91% of the money and 72% of the bets taking the Brewers to win by at least two runs.

It’s still mostly Milwaukee on the moneyline, with 73% of the bets and 76% of the money taking the Brewers at -170.

The consensus is this one will cash the Over, with 83% of bets and 72% of the money expecting Brewers vs Braves to surpass 7.5 runs.