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- The Patriots remain sizable favorites over the Chargers in the final game of Wild Card Sunday
- The public likes New England to win by Los Angeles to cover the spread
- See my final Chargers vs Patriots picks plus the closing odds and betting splits
After a full week of betting action, the odds for the New England Patriots vs Los Angeles Chargers matchup on Wild Card weekend have hardly budged. New England opened as a 3.5-point home favorite and the Chargers/Patriots odds remain at NE -3.5 across the board. The game total tells the same tale: the O/U opened at 45.5 (-110 odds both ways) and remains at 45.5 with almost all books maintaining the pick’em price on the over and under.
Closing Odds for Chargers vs Patriots Wild Card Game
The only market that’s undergone some subtle movement is the moneyline. The Patriots opened as -184 favorites with the Chargers at +154. In the waning hours before kickoff, the best New England moneyline has shortened to -196 (available at FanDuel), while the Chargers are now as long as +170 (at DraftKings).
Odds commentary as of 6:30 pm ET. The lines in the table will update automatically with the best-available price for each market if the NFL odds move before kickoff at 8:15 pm ET.
Bettors looking for additional LAC/NE picks to tail should check out:
LA Chargers vs NE Patriots Picks
I have already discussed this week just how much better the Patriots have been than the Chargers by almost every conceivable metric. They’ve been better offensively (3rd in Offensive DVOA vs 21st), defensively (320 points allowed vs 340), against the spread (11-6 vs 9-8), giveaways (16 vs 21). The list goes on.
On top of that, the Chargers are also banged-up on both sides of the ball. On offense, rookie first-round pick Omarion Hampton (ankle) is officially listed as questionable. On defense, starting free safety Elijah Molden (hamstring) is also questionable. The Pats have their own injury concerns (WR2 Kayshon Boutte and starting WLB Harold Landry are both questionable) but New England is also a deeper team and can better afford a couple missing bodies, especially on offense where Drake Maye will have fully-healthy WR1 Stefon Diggs, RB1 TreVeyon Henderson, RB2 Rhamondre Stevenson, and TE1 Hunter Henry to work with.
Those four comprise New England’s top two receivers and top two rushers in the regular season.
LAC vs NE H2H Statistical Comparison
One area where the Chargers have been better is in their ball-hawking secondary. LAC led the NFL with 19 interceptions in the regular season. But Drake Maye has been deadly accurate all season, finishing the year with a 72.0 completion percentage and just eight INTs. And that ball security didn’t come at the expense of explosive plays; Maye led all starters in yards per attempt (8.93).
This iteration of the Pats has very little postseason experience, and that could be a factor. But it’s extremely hard not to lay the points with the team that’s been significantly better all season long.
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