Diamondbacks vs Cubs Predictions & Picks (May 1)

• The Cubs are -140 moneyline favorites at home today versus the Diamondbacks
• Chicago has outscored Arizona by 28 runs so far this season
• See my Diamondbacks vs Cubs predictions and picks for May 1, below

The Chicago Cubs (19-12) open a fresh series as home favorites in the MLB odds against the Arizona Diamondbacks (16-14) this afternoon. First pitch is scheduled for 2:20 pt ET at Wrigley Field, with the Marquee Sports Network providing the broadcast coverage.

The Cubs enter Game 1 of this three game set riding the momentum of a 5-4 victory over the San Diego Padres, showcasing a relentless offensive attack. Conversely, the Diamondbacks limp into this series looking to bounce back from a decisive 13-1 drubbing at the hands of the Milwaukee Brewers.

Right-hander Zac Gallen takes the mound to stabilize things for the visitors, while Chicago will counter with Colin Rea. Keep reading for my favorite Diamondbacks vs Cubs predictions and picks for May 1 below.

Diamondbacks vs Cubs Predictions and Picks

• Cubs Moneyline (-140 at Bet365)
• Over 7 Runs (-110 at Bet365)
• Nico Hoerner Over 1.5 Total Bases (+136 at DraftKings)

Digging into the MLB starting pitchers and lineups for this contest reveals a pronounced advantage for the home team, making the Cubs Moneyline my top bet. The Cubs boast a superior offensive attack, having already plated 169 runs this season while posting a collective .780 team OPS. The Diamondbacks’ lineup has generated just 141 runs with a much softer .726 OPS.

The home/away splits tell an even more compelling story. The Cubs are scoring 5.31 runs per game at Wrigley Field with a .792 OPS at home, while the Diamondbacks have been significantly worse on the road, managing just 4.33 runs per game away from Chase Field with a paltry .675 OPS. That road OPS ranks among the worst in baseball. Arizona’s road batting average drops to .239, and their walk rate plummets to just 6.6% away from home — the lowest in the league — meaning they generate almost no free baserunners against opposing pitchers in hostile environments.

Zac Gallen vs Colin Rea Stats

On the pitching side, the Cubs’ staff carries a team WHIP of just 1.18 with a 4.01 ERA, while Arizona’s pitchers have been far more hittable at a 1.39 WHIP and 4.99 ERA. Rea may not be an ace, but he doesn’t need to dominate here — he simply needs to keep the ball in the park against a Diamondbacks lineup missing multiple key bats due to injury, while his offense provides run support against a vulnerable Gallen.

For the game total, the Over is the logical read, and the numbers overwhelmingly support it. The Diamondbacks’ starters own a 1.50 WHIP with a .274 opponent batting average. When Gallen is pitching to contact at a .288 clip and the Cubs’ lineup features the potent bats of Seiya Suzuki (.998 OPS, .328 AVG) and Ian Happ (.811 OPS, 7 HR), this is a recipe for crooked numbers.

From the Cubs’ side, Rea’s 4.80 BB/9 and 1.47 WHIP suggest he will put runners on base frequently. The Diamondbacks may struggle to string hits together on the road, but Rea’s control issues will gift them baserunners, and Arizona still has Corbin Carroll (.968 OPS) and Ildemaro Vargas (1.087 OPS) capable of doing damage.

Digging into the MLB props market, I find immense value on Nico Hoerner Over 1.5 Total Bases. Hoerner has been a consistent offensive catalyst, batting .291 with 26 RBI and averaging an impressive 1.2 hits per game. His .819 OPS demonstrates legitimate extra-base pop, and he’s already collected 4 home runs and 8 doubles on the season.

Diamondbacks vs Cubs Odds

Odds as of May 1. Claim the BetMGM promo code to bet on MLB today.

Diamondbacks vs Cubs Betting Splits

Analyzing the MLB public betting splits for this National League showdown reveals a significant alignment between casual bettors and the heavier influxes of cash. 80.6% of the moneyline tickets are riding on the Cubs. More importantly, the money percentage closely mirrors this ticket count, with 79.1% of the overall stake backing the home favorite.

The confidence in the Cubs extends to the runline, where the money distribution tells an even more lopsided story. While 73.5% of the betting tickets are laying the 1.5 runs with the Cubs, a staggering 96.6% of the overall money backs them to win by multiple runs.

If there is one market experiencing near-unanimous consensus, it is the game total. A massive 96.3% of the betting tickets are banking on an offensive shootout, hammering the Over. This is heavily supported by the overall stake, as 94.3% of the money is also sitting on the Over.