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- Kenny Dillingham now leads Michigan coaching odds at 54% on Kalshi
- The Arizona State coach jumped 40 points after Josh Pate endorsement
- Jedd Fisch dropped 14 points while Kalen DeBoer fell 10 points
The Michigan coaching search took another wild turn Thursday. Kenny Dillingham surged to the top of Kalshi’s prediction market at 54% after prominent CFB analyst Josh Pate called the Michigan job “tailor-made” for the Arizona State head coach on Get Up.
Dillingham jumped 40 points in less than 24 hours. Jedd Fisch, who led the market Wednesday at 26%, dropped 14 points to just 14%. Kalen DeBoer fell 10 points to 19%.
The market volume shows just how much action this search is generating. Kalshi’s Michigan head coach market has now seen over $2.2 million in trading volume. You can see the wild movement for yourself in the chart below.
Updated Michigan Coaching Odds
Odds as of Dec. 12 at 6 pm ET at Kalshi prediction markets. Start trading on Kalshi today with the Kalshi referral code.
Dillingham also became the favorite on FanDuel Sportsbook before the book locked the ability to bet on him. When sportsbooks pull a market, it usually means they’re getting information that makes them uncomfortable taking action. That’s another sign pointing toward Dillingham as the pick.
What Josh Pate Said About Dillingham
Pate’s endorsement on ESPN’s Get Up on Thursday morning changed everything. The national analyst didn’t just mention Dillingham as a candidate. He made the case for why Michigan should hire him.
“He’s done a whole lot more with a whole lot less,” Pate said. “I’d just imagine Michigan resources being handed to Kenny Dillingham.”
Pate called Dillingham’s mix of “freshness” and intensity perfect for Ann Arbor. He specifically pointed to Dillingham’s quarterback development as exactly what Michigan’s struggling offense needs. The Wolverines ranked 105th nationally in passing offense this season.
Pate also noted Dillingham’s work with Bo Nix at Oregon, where he helped turn the quarterback into a Heisman finalist and first-round NFL pick. At Arizona State, Dillingham developed Sam Leavitt into a dual-threat weapon who threw 24 touchdowns during the Sun Devils’ 11-3 playoff run in 2024.
Dillingham Track Record at Arizona State
The 35-year-old coach took over an Arizona State program left for dead after the Herm Edwards era. He went 3-9 in his first season in 2023. Most people thought the rebuild would take five years.
Instead, Dillingham led the Sun Devils to an 11-3 record in 2024, captured a Big 12 Championship, and took ASU to the College Football Playoff. This season, dealing with injuries throughout the quarterback room including the loss of Leavitt, he still posted an 8-4 record.
Rivals recruiting analyst Steve Wiltfong said Dillingham “would absolutely crush it at Michigan with his personality and the resources that the school has.” Wiltfong added there’s “not many better in the sport that connect with players and recruits better than Kenny Dillingham.”
Would Dillingham Leave His Alma Mater?
Arizona State is Dillingham’s alma mater. He’s said repeatedly he loves it there and turned down Florida and LSU already this cycle. I didn’t think he’d leave for Michigan either.
But the betting market is saying otherwise. Dillingham now has more implied probability than the next three candidates combined. The 54¢ to 51¢ spread on Kalshi shows heavy conviction on the Yes side, meaning bettors are putting real money behind the idea he takes the job.
Michigan’s resources dwarf what Arizona State can offer. The Wolverines also need someone who can develop Bryce Underwood immediately and salvage the roster before the transfer portal opens January 2. Dillingham checks both boxes.
There’s also smoke beyond the betting markets. Michigan receiver Andrew Marsh recently started following Dillingham on X. Neither Marsh nor Underwood had Arizona State offers, so it’s not from previous high school recruiting. That kind of social media activity usually means something.
What Happened to Fisch and DeBoer?
Jedd Fisch led the Michigan coach odds Wednesday at 26% after Kalen DeBoer’s number crashed earlier in the week. But Fisch’s candidacy appears to be cooling off as Dillingham heats up.
DeBoer remains stuck at 19% with Alabama’s College Football Playoff game against Oklahoma looming December 19. The timing problem hasn’t changed. He’s unavailable while Michigan needs to move fast.
Dillingham’s season is over. He’s available immediately. That timing advantage, combined with Pate’s national platform endorsement, explains the 40-point surge. The Wolverines need to move fast with the portal opening January 2, and the betting market has made its choice clear.