Mariners vs Pirates Player-Prop Picks & Predictions

• The Mariners face the Pirates tonight in Pittsburgh
• J.P. Crawford has fallen off a cliff at the plate, making the under on his hits prop a phenomenal value
• Check out the best Mariners vs Pirates player-prop picks and predictions, below

The Seattle Mariners (40-39) hit the road as slight betting favorites tonight in the MLB odds to face the underdog Pittsburgh Pirates (39-39) at PNC Park. First pitch is set for 6:40 PM ET, with a perfect night for baseball on deck per the MLB weather forecast.

With both franchises hovering right at the .500 mark, picking up early momentum is critical. I am staring down an exciting starting pitching duel between the Mariners’ George Kirby and the Pirates’ Mitch Keller. As of this afternoon, I don’t see a ton of value on either side or total, so I’ll get my exposure for this matchup in the player props market.

Keep reading for my favorite Mariners vs Pirates player-prop picks and predictions, below.

Mariners vs Pirates Player-Prop Odds

Odds as of June 23. Claim the Bet365 promo code to bet on MLB tonight.

When diving into the MLB props, Cal Raleigh leads the way with the shortest odds to hit a home run (+280). Bryan Reynolds brings a stellar .287 batting average to the plate, which explains why he is the only player listed with a total hits over/under of 1.5.

Mariners vs Pirates Pitcher Props

On the mound, Kirby is being priced with higher expectations. His total outs line is 17.5 (-165 to the over), perfectly aligning with his 6.0 full innings average per start. His strikeout prop sits at 5.5, with the under slightly favored (-141).

Keller draws a more modest 15.5 total outs line and a strikeout total of 4.5. The over on his 4.5 strikeouts is favored at -135. Across his 15 starts, he leans toward a baseline of 4.3 strikeouts, but his recent home splits tell a much more compelling story.

Mariners vs Pirates Player-Prop Picks and Predictions

I have analyzed the matchups, and scoured the odds boards. Here are my three favorite bets for tonight’s matchup.

Mitch Keller Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-135 at DraftKings)

Keller has cleared this 4.5 strikeout mark in five of his last seven games overall (71% cover rate) according to the MLB batter vs pitcher stats. More importantly, he has eclipsed this number in three of his last four home starts. The right-hander is finding a rhythm at PNC Park.

He consistently pitches deep into games, averaging exactly 88 pitches per start across his 15 outings. With the Mariners missing a key piece like Randy Arozarena, Keller has plenty of runway to carve through this lineup and secure five punchouts.

Nick Gonzales Over 1.5 Total Bases (+136 at Bet365)
Grabbing plus-money on a hitter who is locked in is a strategy I will deploy all season. Nick Gonzales boasts a 75% cover rate on this total bases prop over his last four games.

With the Mariners bullpen stretched thin due to injuries to Matt Brash and Cooper Criswell, the middle innings could get messy. I expect Gonzales to capitalize on a tired relief corps or find a gap against Kirby early. The +136 price tag is simply too generous to ignore.

J.P. Crawford Under 0.5 Hits (+146 at DraftKings)
J.P. Crawford has completely fallen off a cliff offensively. He has failed to record a base hit in four of his last five contests. Fading the shortstop yields tremendous value at +146.

Crawford is batting a sluggish .219 on the season with just 46 hits over 210 at-bats. Betting against a cold hitter to miraculously find the hit column against a locked-in starter like Keller is a great bet to make.