Mark Zuckerberg Exploring New Prediction Market Platform

• According to a New York Times report, Mark Zuckerberg has directed Meta staff to create a prediction market platform
• The report noted Zuckerberg has directed staff to create a platform similar to Kalshi and Polymarket
• The platform is not expected to allow users to delve into real money at first

Mark Zuckerberg apparently has set his sights on the prediction markets.

Zuckerberg, CEO of Meta, has reportedly directed employees to develop a prediction market platform app similar to the likes of both Kalshi and Polymarket, according to a recent report from The New York Times.

Despite his interest in the prediction market platform, The New York Times report notes Meta’s prediction market platform will differ at first from traditional prediction market services by not using actual money to make trades on its services.

Point System at First

Zuckerberg’s potential prediction market platform, reportedly known as “Arena,” will not allow users at first to trade event contracts using real money. The platform will instead use a video-game style points system for its users, but may pivot to real-money trades in the future.

By staying out of real money on its platform at first, Meta will be able to stay out of the ongoing legal battles between states, prediction market platforms, and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as they vie for regulatory control over event contracts.

The prediction market platform would be able to use Meta’s already robust user base of Facebook and Instagram to drive interest to the service.

According to a CNBC report, both DraftKings and Flutter Entertainment stock fell on Tuesday after the announcement that Zuckerberg was eyeing the prediction market. DraftKings ended day down 2% overall, while Flutter fell by 2% after news of the report broke, but ended up an increase of 0.4% on the day overall.

Both DraftKings and FanDuel have invested millions in their own prediction market platforms since late 2025. Both have also publicly noted that investments will continue in the future.

Serious Challenger to Kalshi and Polymarket?

While several gaming companies such as FanDuel and DraftKings have invested millions in their prediction market platforms, none have come close to challenging the market dominance of Kalshi and Polymarket in the U.S.

Kalshi, which touts itself as the number-one prediction market platform in the U.S., and Polymarket, which touts itself as the number-one prediction market platform in the world, do billions of dollars in handle in event contracts and have a stranglehold on the market.

But Meta may pose a serious challenge to their dominance, as the Zuckerberg company already has a massive, built-in user base in the U.S. and the resources to potentially build a platform to rival the top-two operators.