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- Shane van Gisbergen won the pole because of course he did, but we’re betting on chaos rather than trying to beat the Kiwi head-to-head.
- Toyota continues unloading rocket ships, making Chase Briscoe one of our favorite longshot candidates despite an underwhelming practice and qualifying effort.
- Read below for NASCAR Anduril 250 predictions, odds and start time at San Diego.
By the time you’re reading this, I’ll be somewhere between New Jersey and Pigeon Forge, Tennessee.
The caravan includes my wife, our two kids, my brother-in-law, my sister-in-law, their two kids, my father-in-law, my mother-in-law, and four dogs.
Four.
Dogs.
So whatever you’re doing today, I’ll happily switch places with you.
Before I load enough luggage, dog food, and questionable road-trip snacks into a vehicle to support a small military operation, let’s talk about a race that is taking place on an actual military installation.
The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Southern California this weekend for the inaugural Anduril 250, contested on a temporary 3.4-mile street course built inside Naval Base Coronado.
As expected, Shane van Gisbergen captured the pole position.
Because of course he did.
The New Zealander has spent the better part of the last two years treating road courses like they’re optional difficulty settings. He arrives in San Diego as the clear favorite and the driver everyone will be chasing when the green flag drops Sunday afternoon.
The good news for bettors is that NASCAR races are not won on paper.
Let’s play.
Here are our NASCAR Anduril 250 predictions for Sunday’s Cup Series race at the San Diego Street Course.
NASCAR Anduril 250 Odds
Odds available at bet365 as of 11:50 p.m. ET on June 20. Shane van Gisbergen is the favorite at -240, implying a win probability of 70.59%. Shop the best online sportsbooks for the top Anduril 250 odds.
NASCAR Anduril 250 Predictions
Chase Briscoe Top-10 Finish (+250 at bet365)
The betting board for this race is surprisingly limited. In fact, as I’m writing this, there isn’t a matchup to be found.
Unfortunately, I’m not going to be sitting in a cabin in Tennessee tomorrow morning hunting for late numbers while four dogs and four children attempt to destroy the local ecosystem.
So we’re betting what we can see.
This feels like a strategy race.
There will be stage flipping. There will be alternate pit sequences. There will be fuel-saving. There will be crew chiefs trying things that seemed brilliant on a whiteboard Thursday afternoon and significantly less brilliant on Sunday evening.
The one guy who probably doesn’t need strategy is Shane van Gisbergen.
Everybody else does.
Embrace the variance and take some shots.
Briscoe ranks fifth in both of our projection models.
He didn’t practice particularly well.
He didn’t qualify particularly well either.
Frankly, if you only looked at this weekend’s speed charts, you’d probably scroll right past him.
We’re not.
Briscoe drives for a Toyota organization that has been unloading rocket ships for weeks, and crew chief James Small previously guided Martin Truex Jr. to multiple road-course victories in this same car.
Briscoe can turn right just fine.
At +250, we’re willing to trust the process.
William Byron Top-10 Finish (+250 at bet365)
Byron ranks fourth in our more optimistic model and ninth in the doom-and-gloom version.
Either way, both projections arrive at the same conclusion.
This number is too long.
We would price Byron significantly shorter than even money to record a top-10 finish, making +250 one of the most attractive values currently available on the board.
He doesn’t need to contend for the victory. He simply needs to move forward.
That’s a bet we’re happy to make.
Kyle Larson Top-10 Finish (-129 at BetRivers)
It’s the SpeedwayBrandi Play of the Week.
Larson ranks sixth in one model and third in the other. More importantly, he posted the fastest practice speed.
Yes, Shane van Gisbergen participated.
No, that wasn’t a typo.
The concern here isn’t Larson. The concern is price shopping.
This number will probably close north of -150 at many sportsbooks. If that’s the number you’re staring at when you read this article, pass.
Seriously.
Shop. Shop. Shop.
Don’t overpay for a bad number simply because you’re reading this after the market moved.
We’ll get them next time.
Longshot Portfolio
The good news is that while Shane van Gisbergen is priced like Max Verstappen during the 2023 Formula 1 season, he’s still racing against a field full of NASCAR drivers.
These are people who are not particularly concerned about receiving a 10-second penalty because they failed to leave room at the apex.
Whatever that means.
There will be dive bombs. There will be knuckleheaded cautions. There will probably be a concrete barrier that needs replacing at some point.
So rather than trying to beat SVG head-to-head, we’re building a small portfolio of drivers who could capitalize if the favorite encounters trouble.
Or if Shane van Gisbergen is taken hostage by the United States Navy.
Chase Briscoe (+8000)
William Byron (+8000)
AJ Allmendinger (+8000)
Chase Elliott (+8000)
Chris Buescher (+8000)
Dutching those five drivers produces approximately +1520 odds and that feels like a fine group of fellas to go into battle with.
If we’re live late, the sweat will be spectacular.
If we’re wrong, we won’t feel much of a thing.
Anduril 250 Start Time
Green flag for the Anduril 250 is scheduled for 4:00 p.m. ET on Sunday and will air exclusively on Amazon Prime Video.
Looking for more ways to bet the race? Grab the latest BetMGM promo code ahead of Sunday’s Anduril 250.