Nationals vs Orioles Expert Picks, Predictions & Splits

• The Baltimore Orioles are -140 home favorites when they open a set with the Washington Nationals Friday
• Washington has just two wins in its last eight games
• Read below for the my Nationals vs Orioles picks, predictions, updated odds and betting splits

Two teams that could really use a win square off Friday, when the Baltimore Orioles host the Washington Nationals to kick off an interleague 3-game set.

Baltimore has dropped two straight, and have lost three of its last four series, while the Nationals have dropped three in a row and have just two wins in their last eight overall.

That’s part of the reason they are the road undersog in the MLB odds.

First pitch goes this evening at 7:05pm ET from Oriole Park at Camden Yards, with MLB TV providing the broadcast coverage.

Nationals vs Orioles Picks

Trevor Rogers Under 4.5 pitcher strikeouts (+108 at Caesars)
Rogers is striking out just 6.66 batters per nine innings. The Nationals are hitting .357 as a team against Rogers — albeit a small sample size of 42 at bats — and he has recorded just three strikeouts total.

Gunnar Henderson Over 1.5 total bases (+105 at bet365)
Henderson has 16 home runs and a .424 slugging percentage. He’s picked up hits in four of his last six games, going for at least two total bases in three of those contests.

Over 8.5 runs (-122 at FanDuel)
Washington’s pitching staff carries an elevated 4.688 team ERA, while Baltimore sits at 4.428. Factoring in Rogers’ high 1.356 WHIP, the Nationals’ potent bats—led by James Wood and his 20 home runs—should push this game well over the total.

WAS Nationals vs BAL Orioles Prediction

• Best Bet: Nationals ML (+120 at bet365)

Taking the road underdog on the moneyline is my most compelling play. Washington possesses a distinct advantage at the plate, slashing a collective .247 with a .746 OPS, outperforming Baltimore’s .241 average and .722 OPS.

As for the MLB probable pitchers, Nationals starter Andrew Alvarez holds a sturdy 3.34 ERA over his last 10 appearances.

Alvarez enters still searching for his first decision (0-0) but has effectively prevented runs with a sharp 2.70 ERA and a matching 2.73 FIP. His biggest asset is missing bats, generating an elite 10.80 K/9. His main limitation is length, averaging just 4.17 innings per start recently.

Conversely, Orioles left-hander Trevor Rogers has struggled to a 5.30 ERA across 73.0 innings pitched this season.

Rogers gets the nod for Baltimore with a 4-7 record and a 5.30 ERA. Over his last 10 starts, he has labored to a 6.39 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP. His strikeout numbers remain pedestrian with a 6.66 K/9 overall.

Both pitching staffs look incredibly vulnerable, with Washington carrying a 4.70 overall team ERA and Baltimore sitting at 4.44.

As for the batter vs pitcher stats, James Wood has been perfect against Rogers, going 3-for-3, supporting my expectation for Washington to generate offensive traffic. Conversely, Keibert Ruiz has managed just a .200 batting average across 10 career at-bats against the veteran left-hander.

For Baltimore, Pete Alonso has found success against Alvarez with two hits in four at-bats. Although Henderson struck out in his lone career at-bat against Alvarez, his season-long metrics validate looking toward his total bases prop against a vulnerable bullpen.

Washington travels to Camden Yards boasting an elite road offense. Generating 5.30 runs per game away from home, they rank fourth in the majors. Their speed element is a distinct mismatch, generating an aggressive 1.10 stolen bases per game on the road.

I am backing Washington to secure a road victory.

Nationals vs Orioles Odds & Betting Splits

The graphic above shows the best available odds, which are subject to change. Be sure to use the BetMGM promo code to bet on Nationals vs Orioles or any other MLB game.

Baltimore enters this matchup as a moderate home favorite on the moneyline at -140 at bet365. Washington offers plus-money value at +120 to pull off the upset on the road.

On the runline, backing the Orioles to win by multiple runs yields an attractive +146 return, courtesy of FanDuel. The Nats are getting 1.5 runs on the spread but the tax is -160 odds.

Over bettors will want to target FanDuel, where the line is set at 8.5 runs, while BetMGM goes up to 9.0 runs, paying at -105 odds.

Looking at the MLB public betting splits, and the public consensus veers from my pick, choosing the Orioles on the moneyline, with 77% of the bets and 64% of the money on the O’s.

As for the total, the public is expecting plenty of runs. The Over 9.0 runs is getting 84% of the bets and 89% of the money Friday (please note, the public betting splits for the Nationals vs Orioles spread was not available).