Picks, Predictions & Injuries for USA vs Turkiye

• I project the United States to dominate possession and comfortably win (ML: +108) this group-stage finale
• Turkiye’s massive attacking struggles make the Under 2.5 goals (+117) an incredibly strong value play in USA vs Turkiye odds
• Ricardo Pepi offers immense upside as an anytime goalscorer (+162) against a heavily fatigued defense

The United States looks to put the finishing touches on a perfect World Cup Group D campaign when they host Turkiye at Los Angeles Stadium. Kickoff is scheduled for Thursday, June 25, at 10:00 p.m. ET.

Riding a dominant two-match winning streak, the United States has already clinched top spot in Group D and enters as a clear moneyline favorite, according to our World Cup game odds. Conversely, Turkiye enters the pitch as a massive underdog, burdened by a bleak two-match losing skid that has them eliminated even before the start of this match. They became the second team to get eliminated from the 2026 FIFA World Cup after Haiti.

I approach this fixture strictly from a data-driven betting angle, identifying significant edges in the market. With the Americans locked into first place and star forward Christian Pulisic potentially missing his second match of the tournament, the hosts have every incentive to rotate and rest key starters.

However, I fully expect their depth, driven by Juventus midfielder Weston McKennie and Leverkusen playmaker Malik Tillman, to completely overwhelm a Turkish squad that has drastically underperformed despite featuring elite European talents like Real Madrid playmaker Arda Guler and Juventus winger Kenan Yildiz.

USA vs Turkiye Odds

Kalshi prices as of June 24, 2026 at 11:00 a.m. ET. American odds equivalents are rounded and calculated from the listed contract prices.

I see the market positioning the United States as the clear favorite, accurately reflecting the disparate trajectories of these two sides. At a 48-cent contract price, the Americans are priced just below even money in American odds terms.

For bettors analyzing potential returns, a $20 equivalent position on the United States at 48¢ would return about $41.67 if it settles in the money, including the original stake equivalent. A $20 equivalent position on Turkiye at 27¢ would return about $74.07.

I monitored noticeable movement since the opening lines dropped at traditional sportsbooks, something we can also see in our World Cup public betting information. The United States opened as -0.5 goal favorites with a plus-money price, but sharp backing shifted those odds to -115 before settling. The goal total also experienced a notable shift, opening at 2.5 with even money (+100) before public money juiced the over at several books.

Best USA vs Turkiye Picks and Predictions

I am bypassing the traditional sportsbook juice on the total and attacking a highly specific game script for this group-stage finale. My analysis isolates three +EV wagers that capitalize on a massive tactical mismatch.

Match Prediction: United States 3-Way Moneyline (-105)

The United States has operated as a ruthless attacking force, converting exactly 75.0 percent of their shots on target into goals. They have scored six times on just 25 total shots.

Meanwhile, Turkiye’s underlying metrics reveal a fundamentally broken system. Despite attempting 61 shots, they hold a 0.0 percent goal conversion rate. I am backing the hosts on the moneyline, as fading Turkiye’s scoreless attack hits my personal > 60% success threshold for fading heavily inefficient possession teams.

Total-Goals Pick: Under 2.5 Goals (46¢ at Kalshi)

I recommend buying “No” on Over 2.5 goals at a price of 46 cents at Kalshi, which translates to +117 odds and offers much better expected value than traditional books.

Turkiye’s attacking woes present a compelling statistical case. Opponents have blocked 23 of their shots, completely neutralizing their final-third entries. Furthermore, the United States scores early, netting five of their six tournament goals in the first half. I expect a rotated American squad to secure an early lead and comfortably drain the clock, cashing this under ticket.

Player Prop: Ricardo Pepi Anytime Goalscorer (+163 at bet365)

With Pulisic highly doubtful, Ricardo Pepi becomes the undisputed focal point of the American attack. Pepi finds himself perfectly positioned to exploit a fatigued Turkish backline that has conceded multiple times in the opening 45 minutes of their matches.

His off-ball movement perfectly counters Turkiye’s aggressive but porous defensive shape, making his +162 price tag an elite value play for an anytime goal. He should be among the most popular types of World Cup prop bets with Falorin Balogun not expected to start.

USA vs Turkiye Head-to-Head History and Recent Form

To contextualize this matchup, I analyzed the lone historical meeting between these nations alongside their aggregated form over their last seven international fixtures.

Turkiye secured a 2-1 victory during an international friendly in 2025. However, the underlying data highlights a massive mismatch in match control that directly supports my current betting angles.

The United States dictated the tempo entirely in that friendly, hoarding 60.0 percent of the possession and outshooting their European counterparts. Turkiye won purely through counter-attacking efficiency, a trait they have completely lost during this current World Cup campaign.

USA vs Turkiye Team Statistics and Tactical Mismatches

I dive past surface-level results to examine the underlying tournament metrics. Comparing their cumulative stats through two group-stage matches reveals a staggering contrast in playing styles and sheer attacking efficiency.

The data paints a picture of two teams experiencing completely different realities on the pitch. Turkiye leads the entire World Cup field in total shots (61) and ranks tied for first in average ball possession (70.5%). Yet, they sit tied for the absolute bottom in scoring.

Conversely, the United States showcases elite precision. They rank significantly lower in overall shot volume but sit tied for fifth overall in goals scored. I expect the Americans to easily absorb Turkiye’s empty possession and counter-attack with clinical accuracy.

USA vs Turkiye: Injury Report

As both squads prepare for this final Group D clash, the medical staff will heavily influence the starting lineups. I am monitoring a few critical names currently carrying doubtful tags.

Christian Pulisic is the most glaring name on the report. Because the United States has already secured advancement to the knockout rounds, I fully expect Mauricio Pochettino to rest his talismanic forward.

For Turkiye, Vincenzo Montella’s attacking options take another devastating hit with the doubtful status of Yunus Akgun. Losing a dynamic attacking piece like Akgun strips away another vital option for a manager desperately searching for a spark to salvage tournament pride.

USA vs Turkiye: Projected Starting Lineups

USA (4-2-3-1): Matt Turner; Joe Scally, Mark McKenzie, Auston Trusty, Max Arfsten; Sebastian Berhalter, Malik Tillman; Timothy Weah, Giovanni Reyna, Alejandro Zendejas; Ricardo Pepi

Turkiye (4-2-3-1): Mert Gunok; Mert Muldur, Merih Demiral, Ozan Kabak, Ferdi Kadioglu; Salih Ozcan, Hakan Calhanoglu; Arda Guler, Can Uzun, Kenan Yildiz; Denis Gul