Picks, Props & Best Bets for Cubs vs Mets on June 25

• Chicago scored 10 runs in both ends of the doubleheader yesterday
• The Mets committed six errors in Game 2
• Continue reading for my Cubs vs Mets picks

The Chicago Cubs (43-37) are continuing their series against the New York Mets (34-46) at Citi Field on June 25, 2026, with first pitch set for 7:10 PM EST on SNY. After securing a 10-5 victory in their last outing, Chicago looks to build on its recent offensive surge. In that previous matchup, the road squad capitalized on six errors by New York, racking up 11 hits. Despite the defeat, the Mets showcased power, blasting four home runs.

As recently as April 15, the Mets were better off in NL playoff odds than the Cubs, but their paths have diverged. The Cubs have been hot and cold this season (with multiple 10-game winning streaks and a 10-game losing streak), bu they are likely to be playoff-bound. The Mets, on the other haand, have tanked to further than 6-to-1 odds.

Now, the Mets, featuring talent like Francisco Lindor, need a sharper defensive showing to bounce back. From a betting perspective, this matchup presents an intriguing puzzle. Will New York’s lineup mask their fielding woes, or will the disciplined Cubs keep rolling? This breakdown examines the probable pitching matchups, recent trends, and key betting angles to help you navigate tonight’s clash.

Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets Predictions & Picks

Diving into the season-long statistical profiles paints a clear picture for my prediction. I am backing Chicago on the moneyline. The Cubs bring a far more disciplined and potent offense to the table. They boast a .244 team batting average and a .744 OPS, dwarfing New York’s .231 average and .674 OPS.

Chicago has plated 395 runs this season compared to New York’s 325. When you combine that run-scoring disparity with the Mets’ league-leading struggles in the field (51 total errors and a .982 fielding percentage), the road team holds the operational edge. The pitching matchup features two arms who have been heavily prone to giving up runs.

Matthew Boyd vs Freddy Peralta

Chicago hands the ball to southpaw Matthew Boyd, while New York counters with veteran right-hander Freddy Peralta.

Boyd’s 6.00 ERA across five starts (24.0 IP) might cause hesitation. However, his 2.35 FIP indicates he has fallen victim to bad luck and poor situational defense. He is neutralizing free passes (2.25 BB/9) and striking out batters at a blistering 11.63 K/9 rate. He will need to navigate the Mets’ lineup efficiently to provide length. This is his first start since May 3 after sustaining an injury while playing with his kids.

Peralta (5-6) has served as a workhorse, logging 85.2 innings over 16 starts. Unfortunately, his effectiveness is slipping. Over his last 10 outings (53.1 innings), his ERA swelled to 5.40, and his WHIP jumped to 1.50. Opposing lineups are squaring him up to the tune of a .278 batting average over that span.

Chicago Cubs Batters vs Freddy Peralta

New York Mets Batters vs Matthew Boyd

Pete Crow-Armstrong has thrived against Peralta, boasting a .385 average across 13 at-bats. Conversely, Peralta has dominated a large portion of the Chicago lineup, holding Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki, Michael Busch, and Dansby Swanson to a combined 10-for-99 (.101) with 43 strikeouts. The Mets’ history against Boyd is limited, but Marcus Semien and Bo Bichette have both taken the southpaw deep.

Team Stats Comparison

The disparities between these rosters become glaringly apparent at the plate. Chicago has been an offensive force on the road this season, plating an impressive 5.08 runs per game. Conversely, New York has squandered its home-field advantage. They manage just 4.41 runs per game in their own building with a sluggish .694 home OPS.

Chicago pairs a patient approach with aggressive baserunning, generating 0.82 stolen bases per game compared to New York’s 0.46 mark. However, the Mets hold a slight edge in raw quality of contact. When New York connects, they hit the ball hard, boasting a higher average exit velocity (88.9 mph) at home than the Cubs do on the road.

Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets Odds & Trends

The betting market for tonight’s contest presents a tightly contested board. New York entered as a narrow -115 moneyline favorite at home, but the line has since equalized to -108 on both sides. New York is heavily juiced at -184 to cover the +1.5 runline. You can find plus-money value (+152) on Chicago to win by multiple runs.

While the runline has remained stationary, the total has seen notable movement. The total opened at a flat 8 runs with standard -110 juice on both sides. That number has since been pushed up to 8.5. This half-run increase is logical given the starting pitching matchup. Early sharp money likely targeted the Over, forcing oddsmakers to adjust the threshold. The over has -114 juice while the under is at -106.

Looking at situational trends, Chicago has capitalized on favorable matchups down the stretch. They are winning 75.0% of their games as a favorite over their last 10 outings (6-2). Meanwhile, New York has struggled immensely when taking the field as an underdog this season, winning just 26.9% of those matchups. High-scoring affairs have been the norm for New York lately, with the Over cashing in 70.0% of their last 10 games.

Odds as of June 25, 2026, at 4:30 PM ET from FanDuel

Public Betting Splits

When breaking down the MLB public betting splits, comparing ticket percentages against money percentages provides a critical look at how bettors approach the game. I rely on the money percentage as the more valuable metric. It typically reflects the opinions of larger, sharper bettors rather than casual fans.

In the moneyline market for tonight’s matchup, I am seeing a fascinating divide. New York is receiving a slight majority of the betting tickets at 51.7%. However, Chicago is commanding a massive 66.5% of the total money wagered. The heavy financial investment backing the road underdogs aligns perfectly with my prediction of an outright Cubs victory.

Over on the game total, the action is much more unified. The Under commands 55.1% of the betting tickets and 55.8% of the overall money handle. Despite this public consensus leaning toward the Under, my analysis points in the opposite direction. Given the high-ERA starting pitchers taking the mound, I still lean toward a higher-scoring affair.

Injury Report

The injury report introduces major wrinkles into my betting analysis tonight. For New York, the overarching concern is the health of Juan Soto. He was a late scratch on June 24 due to left side back tightness. If Soto is unable to go, New York loses its most consistent bat. This forces an already struggling offense to manufacture runs without its primary table-setter.

Chicago is navigating a heavily battered pitching staff. Prominent starters including Justin Steele and Jameson Taillon are currently sidelined. This widespread depletion elevates the stakes for Boyd as he returns from a knee injury tonight. I suggest bettors backing Boyd’s strikeout props be mindful of potential pitch-count limitations as he works his way back into form.