Rivalry Game Predictions & Best Bets

Donaven McCulley has been a reliable No.1 option, averaging just north of 50 receiving yards per game. While the Wolverines have not replaced first-round pick Colston Loveland, they have a solid collection of weapons.

Michigan once again has one of the better defenses in the country. Derrick Moore and Jaishawn Barham lead the line. Moore leads the team with 4.5 sacks, while Barham has notched a healthy 7.0 tackles for a loss.

Michigan State’s season has gone off the rails after a 3-0 start. They were rudely welcomed to their Big Ten slate with a multi-score loss at USC, and they have sputtered in double-digit losses to Nebraska, UCLA, and Indiana in recent weeks. They have allowed 38 points exactly in each of the last three games.

Quarterback Aidan Chiles has been a capable signalcaller. He has 15 total touchdowns, leading the team in rushing touchdowns. Chiles has completed over 65% of his passes and thrown only three interceptions.

Makhi Frazier has been average this season, posting 4.1 yards per rush and being a non-factor in the receiving game. He has two rushing touchdowns on the season, tied with Brandon Tullis for second on the team.

The receiving game is much more impressive. The duo of Omari Kelly and Nick Marsh have both surpassed 400 yards. Marsh leads the pair with 36 catches and five touchdowns while Kelly has two extra yards and a higher per-catch average. The Spartans have two capable tight ends as Jack Velling and Michael Masunas have two touchdowns each.

Michigan State has been demolished defensively in recent weeks, allowing 38-plus points in every Big Ten game. The name to watch is linebacker Jordan Hall. Hall has stuffed the stat sheet with 26 solo tackles, 51 total tackles, 3.5 tackles for a loss, 2.0 sacks, an interception, and a forced fumble.

Michigan vs Michigan State Best Bets

Here is my reasoning for backing this angle:

• First, this is one of the premier rivalries in the sport. In the last five matchups, three were decided by less than a touchdown. In a rivalry game, anything can happen, and I will happily take Sparty as 14.5-point underdogs to keep it close enough to cover.
• In a similar vein, a closer game could yield a higher point total. At least 48 points have been scored in four of the last six matchups. This could manifest itself in late-game scoring to make the final score closer or even in an overtime game in which scoring could pop.
• Michigan State has been covering machines as underdogs this season, going 3-0 against the spread. While they lost outright in all three games, they covered the spread against USC, Nebraska, and Indiana. Michigan has been spotty at covering bigger spreads this season, going 1-2 against the spread as double-digit favorites. They covered 28 points against Central Michigan, but they did not cover 34.5 against New Mexico or 17.5 against Wisconsin.
• For the total, the over is 5-2 in Michigan State games. The under is 4-3 in Michigan games. If any team can crack Michigan’s No.17 scoring defense, it would be Michigan’s hated rival on the road. Michigan State adds fuel to the offensive fire with the 122nd-ranked scoring defense.
• It is worth noting that this is Bryce Underwood’s first major rivalry game as Michigan’s quarterback. As good as the true freshman has been in the winged helmet, this is a major test on the road against a rival. Michigan will play tougher teams, but a player’s first rivalry game is not to be ignored.

Michigan vs Michigan State Betting Lines

The sportsbooks have Michigan as hefty road favorites, with the total set between 47.5 and 48 points. Over bettors can get over 47.5 for -105 odds at Caesars. Under bettors can get under 48 at BetRivers for -122 odds.

Michigan bettors should take them -13.5 at ESPNBet (-120 odds) or -550 on the moneyline at DraftKings. Michigan State bettors should take them +14.5 at Underdog (-117 odds) or +450 on the moneyline at ESPNBet.

Odds as of October 25, 2025, at consensus sportsbooks. Visit the best online sportsbook for Michigan vs Michigan State.

Michigan vs Michigan State, Last Five Matchups

Michigan leads the lifetime series 74-38-5, winning the last three matchups. The Wolverines and Spartans have played every season since World War II.

Last season, Michigan took care of business at home, winning 24-17. Future Chicago Bear Colston Loveland caught two touchdowns and a two-point conversion for the Wolverines. Alex Orji added the other touchdown before transferring to UNLV in the offseason. On the Michigan State side, Nate Carter ran for 118 yards and a touchdown. Aidan Chiles threw for 189 yards and a touchdown.