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Spain has moved to block access to prediction market platforms Polymarket and Kalshi while regulators investigate whether the companies have been operating in the country without the required gambling licenses.
The action was announced by Spain’s Ministry of Consumer Rights and published in the country’s Official State Gazette. The ministry said its gambling regulator, the Dirección General de Ordenación del Juego (DGOJ), has opened sanctioning proceedings against the two US-based operators for allegedly offering services in Spain without the mandatory administrative authorization required under national gambling laws.
The temporary block is expected to remain in place for three to four months while the investigation continues. Spanish authorities have instructed internet service providers to restrict access to the platforms, with users expected to receive warning notices indicating they are attempting to access an unlicensed gambling website.
Officials said previous attempts to notify the companies at known foreign addresses were unsuccessful, leading regulators to issue formal notices through publication in the state gazette.
Consumer safeguards at the center
The DGOJ said prediction markets fall within Spain’s gambling framework because they involve “placing bets on uncertain future outcomes.” As a result, operators offering such products must obtain specific licenses before serving customers in the country.
Unauthorized operators do not provide several protections required under Spanish law, officials highlighted. These include identity verification systems, controls preventing access by minors, measures covering self-excluded or banned gamblers, and other oversight mechanisms intended to protect consumers.
Polymarket and Kalshi allow users to trade positions on the outcomes of future events rather than traditional sports or casino wagers. Markets available on the platforms have included elections, geopolitical developments, economic events, and political leadership changes.
Recent examples included markets on whether Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez would leave office early and which global political leaders might depart their posts during the year.
European responses continue to diverge
Spain’s move adds to a growing list of European jurisdictions that have taken action against prediction market operators. Polymarket was blocked in France in 2024 after authorities concluded the platform’s activities were likely incompatible with French law. Other European countries that have restricted access to the platform include Germany, Belgium, Portugal, Switzerland, Romania, the Netherlands, and Poland.
At the same time, some jurisdictions are exploring regulatory frameworks rather than outright restrictions. Malta has publicly stated that it is examining the prediction market sector and potential regulatory approaches. Earlier this year, Gibraltar granted a license to its first prediction market operator.
The differing approaches illustrate an ongoing debate across Europe regarding how prediction markets should be classified. While some regulators view them as gambling products because participants wager on uncertain future outcomes, others continue to assess whether they may fall within financial market, securities, or commodities frameworks.
Industry growth draws regulatory attention
Prediction markets have expanded rapidly from a niche online activity into a multibillion-dollar sector, particularly following their increased visibility during the 2024 US presidential election cycle.
The sector’s growth has attracted greater regulatory scrutiny, with authorities examining issues including licensing requirements, consumer protection standards, and the legal classification of contracts tied to future events.
Once Spain’s investigation concludes, Polymarket and Kalshi could pursue local licensing, challenge the regulatory classification applied to their services, or modify their offerings to comply with Spanish requirements. A final ruling is expected within the next three to four months.