Stars vs Wild Prediction, Expert Pick & Odds for Game 6

• The Wild are -122 favorites over the Stars in Game 6 of their 1st Round series
• Dallas has underperformed its expected goal total by 7.32 goals at even strength
• Keep reading for my top Stars vs Wild prediction and expert pick, plus the latest odds for Game 6

Before the postseason started I predicted the Stars vs Wild 1st Round series was destined for 7 games. After the first five contests I’m not backing off that statement, despite Minnesota having a chance to close out Dallas in Game 6 tonight on home ice.

The Wild bring a 3-2 series lead into action this evening and online sportsbooks like their chances of securing their first series victory since 2015. They’ve pegged Minnesota as -122 favorites in the NHL odds, which means I’m getting a nice plus-money price to back the Stars.

Puck drop is set for 7:30 pm ET from Grand Casino Arena, in Saint Paul, MN, with TNT, truTV and HBO Max providing the coverage across America, and Sportsnet handling Canadian TV duties.

Keep reading for top Stars vs Wild prediction and expert pick, plus the latest odds for Game 6 below.

Stars vs Wild Prediction and Expert Pick for Game 6

• Dallas Stars Moneyline (+105 at Bet365)

My favorite wager tonight is the Stars moneyline at +105. Despite what you might think, this is not me being stubborn. Dallas has outplayed Minnesota by a wide margin during 5-on-5 play, and are in line for some serious positive regression. Some of the Stars biggest names have also been kept quiet this series, and with their backs against the wall I expect them to show up in this elimination game.

The winner of this series draws the Avalanche in the next round of the NHL Playoff Bracket. That hardly seems fair, as Colorado, Dallas and Minnesota are arguably three of the four best teams in hockey. The Wild took Game 5 on the road to put themselves in a close out situation, but they certainly didn’t outplay the Stars. Dallas controlled possession for over 60% of the play at even strength, generating more scoring chances, more high danger opportunities and a higher expected goals for rate. They underperformed their xGF mark by 1.17 goals across all strengths, which is nothing new in this series.

Over the course of five games, Dallas has an expected goals for total of 10.32 at even strength, which is a half goal higher than Minnesota’s. However, when it comes to actual goals scored, the Wild hold an 11-3 advantage. The Stars also have a 53.5% to 46.5% edge in possession during 5-on-5 play, and have produced eight more high danger scoring chances.

Dallas Stars 5-on-5 Playoff Stats

So what’s been the difference? Jesper Wallstedt’s incredible .974 save percentage at even strength and .926 mark across all strengths. That’s been significantly better than the numbers posted by Jake Oettinger at the other end, but it’s hard to imagine Wallstedt maintaining this level of play for much longer. Prior to this season, Wallstedt had a sub .900 save percentage over limited playing time, and ran hot and cold during the regular season. We’ve all seen teams ride a hot goalie to lengthly playoff runs in the past, but I’m not convinced Wallstedt can follow in the footsteps of some of those legends this early in his career.

As for the Stars big guns, it’s about time they make an impact. Mikko Rantanen has scored only once through five games, while double-digit goal scorers Mavrik Bourque, Justin Hryckowian, Jamie Benn and Sam Steel have combined for zero goals so far. These guys are too skilled to be silenced for much longer, and I’m expecting a big impact from this group tonight.

Stars vs Wild Odds for Game 6

Odds as of April 30. Claim the DraftKings promo code to bet on the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

Moving over to the Stars vs Wild odds for Game 6, where Bet365 is offering the best payout on Dallas’ monyeline at +105 odds. If you like the other side make sure you visit DraftKings, as their -122 moneyline is the top price on a Minnesota victory.

Total-wise, this clash of Stanley Cup odds contenders features an over/under of 5.5. Games 1, 2, 3 and 5 have all exceeded that mark, and I wouldn’t be shocked if Game 6 did as well given the positive regression I’m expecting the Stars to experience.