Updated World Cup-Winner Odds – Spain Slips After 0-0 Draw With Cape Verde

• Spain’s World Cup-winner priced moved from 17¢ to 15.1¢ after a 0-0 draw with Cape Verde
• France is now the favorite at 18.3¢, ahead of Spain, Portugal at 11.9¢, and England at 10.4¢.
• See the updated World Cup-winner odds and prices

Monday’s goalless draw in Atlanta did more than cost Spain two points – it also knocked La Roja down the odds to win the World Cup. Spain entered the Cape Verde match as the 17¢-favorite to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, but after failing to break through in a 0-0 result, the Spain faded to just 15.1¢ (equal to +562 odds), which trails France (18.3¢, +446).

Sportsbooks had a similar reaction: at BetMGM, Spain slipped to +500, trailing France at +400.

Updated World Cup-Winner Odds & Prices

After France and Spain, Portugal is third at 11.9¢, England fourth at 10.4¢, and reigning-champion Argentina fifth at 8.7¢.

That top five is followed by five-time-champion Brazil at 6.6¢, Germany at 6.1¢ and the Netherlands at 4.8¢. The USA entered the top top-ten after their 4-1 pasting of Paraguay in their opening fixture. Morocco rounds out the top ten at 2.2¢; the Atlas Lions, who finished a stunning third at the 2022 World Cup, showed that was no fluke with a deserved 1-1 draw against Brazil on the weekend.

Spain’s Injuries Proved Impactful

Spain’s price movement reflects the gap between control and conversion. Luis de la Fuente’s side dominated Cape Verde statistically, holding 62% possession and piling up 23 shots to Cape Verde’s six, but seven shots on target produced no goals. Pedri tested Vozinha twice inside the opening 15 minutes, while Mikel Oyarzabal, Aymeric Laporte, Fabián Ruiz, Mikel Merino and Marc Cucurella all had chances that ended in the same frustration.

Neither Lamine Yamal or Nico Williams started the match due to injuries. Both wingers were able to sub on in the second half – Lamal in the 71st minute and Williams in the 87th – but they didn’t have enough time to muster a goal.

Cape Verde’s defensive stand also created one late jolt for the market narrative. After spending most of the match under pressure, Cape Verde nearly stole the win in stoppage time when Diney Borges recorded his team’s only shot on target with a 91st-minute header that Spain scrambled away. The final whistle from referee Adham Mohammad Tumah Makhadmeh confirmed a result that was heroic for Cape Verde but costly for Spain’s perception as a tournament favorite.

For Kalshi traders, the draw does not remove Spain from the top tier of contenders, but it does cool their immediate outlook. At 15.1¢, Spain remains second on the board and within striking distance of France.

Monday’s stalemate showed why the market trimmed its confidence: dominance without finishing is still a risk, even for one of the World Cup’s strongest squads.

Opening Spain vs Saudi Arabia Odds

The opening lines for Spain’s next game against Saudi Arabia on June 21 see La Roja priced at 90¢ to win (-900) with another draw at 7¢ (+1329) and a KSA win at 5¢ (+1900).

The World Cup match odds for Cape Verde’s next game against Uruguay (also on June 21) list the African side as big uderdogs once again. They are priced at +650 to win with the draw at +360 and a Uruguay victory at -208.