Wimbledon Predictions & Expert Picks Today

• Tommy Paul is a playable moneyline favorite against Hubert Hurkacz
• I’m backing Daniil Medvedev to cover a big spread at plus-money
• See my Wimbledon predictions and expert picks for Friday, July 3

The men’s Round of 32 at Wimbledon continues on Friday, July 3, with a full slate. The schedule starts with a quintet of matches at 6:00 am ET and runs through Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Michael Zheng, which has a tentative start time of 11:30 am ET.

Today’s card features a lot of heavy favorites, but my betting card is built around selective pricing. The table below summarizes my three Wimbledon best bets for Friday, July 3, along with the best-available odds for each pick. Under the table, find my analytical rationale for the picks.

Wimbledon Predictions & Expert Picks Today (July 3)

My three Wimbledon best bets on Friday include on plus-money spread pick, one spread pick at standard -110 odds, and one modest moneyline play.

I went a perfect 3-0 on Thursday, boosting my record for the tournament as a whole to 8-4 (+3.6 units on one-unit wagers).

Tommy Paul vs Hubert Hurkacz Prediction: Paul Moneyline (-186 / 65¢ at Kalshi)

Paul is the cleanest moneyline play on the board at 65 cents at Kalshi. He checks the key boxes I want from a favorite in this price range: better ranking, steadier return game, and better recent results.

The Elo profile supports Paul as the rightful favorite. Paul is No. 12 in overall Elo at 1948.5 and No. 11 in grass Elo at 1800.8, while Hurkacz is No. 52 overall at 1798.2 and No. 38 on grass at 1699.9. That gives Paul a 150.3-point overall Elo edge and a 100.9-point grass-specific edge.

Hurkacz can keep sets tight if he lands first serves at a high clip, but Paul does not need to dominate to justify this bet. He only needs to win the match, and at -186, the price remains playable.

Lately, Paul has not just been winning on grass; he has been controlling matches with clean margins and consistent return pressure. He beat each of his first two Wimbledon opponents in straight sets with game margins of 14 (vs Alexandre Muller) and 9 (vs Soonwoo Kwon). Recent wins over Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and Ugo Humbert show he is already beating credible grass-court opponents during this swing.

Hurkacz is dangerous on grass and has also started Wimbledon well, beating both Casper Ruud and Sebastian Ofner in straight sets. I don’t want to lay games against him because he is extremely tough to break on grass. But his Wimbledon lead-up was uneven: he lost to Marton Fucsovics at Hertogenbosch and Daniel Altmaier in Halle.

Paul has undeniably produced the steadier grass résumé over the last few weeks.

Medvedev vs Struff Prediction: Medvedev -6.5 Games (+113 / 47¢ at Kalshi)

Medvedev is a hyper short 84 cents on the moneyline so the better angle is -6.5, which is a tantalizing 47 cents (+113) at Kalshi.

The ranking profile evinces the mismatch. Medvedev is No. 9 in the ATP singles rankings with 3,580 points, while Struff is No. 74 with 804 points. Struff’s serve and first-strike power can be dangerous on grass, but Medvedev’s return depth and defensive range should make him difficult to hold off for three-plus sets.

The Elo gap points the same way. Medvedev is No. 8 in overall Elo at 1977.4 and No. 7 in grass Elo at 1855.1. Struff is No. 117 overall at 1694.2 and No. 89 on grass at 1623.1. That is a 283.2-point overall Elo edge and a 232.0-point grass Elo edge for Medvedev, which is strong enough to support a spread bet rather than just a straight-up pick.

Medvedev’s Wimbledon start adds more support. He opened with a routine 6-1, 6-2, 6-4 win over Marin Cilic, then beat Daniel Merida Aguilar in four sets after dropping the opener. His grass lead-up was not perfect, with losses to Kamil Majchrzak at Hertogenbosch and Daniel Altmaier in Halle, but he also posted clean grass wins over Cilic, Timofey Boogaard, Tomas Martin Etcheverry, and Terence Atmane during the warmup swing.

Struff has battled his way here, but the path has been much more physically demanding. He needed five sets to beat Sebastian Baez in the first round and five more to get past Brandon Nakashima, including multiple tiebreaks. His pre-Wimbledon grass results were mixed as well, with losses to Alexander Bublik in Stuttgart and Nuno Borges in Mallorca.

That makes this a difficult turnaround against an elite returner who can extend rallies and force Struff to play extra balls in service games.

This is still a grass-court handicap, so there is real tiebreak risk. A single 7-6 set can make a -6.5 cover more complicated. But if Medvedev gets ahead early, his return pressure can snowball over a best-of-five match, especially against a player coming off back-to-back five-setters.

The plus-money price is enough for me to back the favorite on the spread.

Davidovich Fokina vs Fucsovics Pick: ADF -5.5 Games (-110 at bet365)

The Elo numbers support Davidovich Fokina, though the grass-specific edge is more modest than the Medvedev or Paul mismatches against their respective opponents.

ADF is No. 25 in overall Elo at 1893.2 and No. 16 in grass Elo at 1782.0. Fucsovics is No. 69 overall at 1755.6 and No. 41 on grass at 1694.7. That leaves Davidovich Fokina with a 137.6-point overall Elo advantage and an 87.3-point grass Elo edge.

Recent grass results strengthen the case for laying games, though. ADF has won eight of his last ten grass matches, and both Wimbledon wins have come in straight sets. He opened with a 6-4, 6-4, 7-6 win over Juan Manuel Cerundolo, then demolished Fabian Marozsan 6-3, 6-0, 6-3 in the second round.

That Marozsan result is especially useful for this handicap because it showed he can create repeated break chances and separate by a large margin on this surface.

His grass lead-up was also excellent. In Mallorca, Davidovich Fokina beat Adam Walton, Grigor Dimitrov, Marozsan, and Ethan Quinn in succession. Before that, he beat Cameron Norrie and Corentin Moutet in London, with his only grass losses in this stretch coming against Tommy Paul and Mattia Bellucci. That is a much stronger recent grass profile than Fucsovics brings into this matchup.

Fucsovics has played well enough to reach this stage, beating Learner Tien in four sets after advancing past Luca Van Assche via retirement. But his grass lead-up also included straight-set losses to Felix Auger-Aliassime and Brandon Nakashima. He is experienced and can be stubborn in patches, but ADF has the better baseline ceiling and should create more pressure in return games.

The handicap asks for margin, not perfection. Given Davidovich Fokina’s two straight-set Wimbledon wins, his deep Mallorca run, and the supporting Elo edge, a four-set win with a couple of clean sets can still get this number home.

Kalshi is only offering a -5.5 spread at 57 cents (-133 odds) and a -7.5 spread at 42 cents (+138) so I’m using the 5.5-game number at bet365, which is priced at a fair -110.

Wimbledon Odds for July 3 (Men’s Singles)

Odds are from bet365 as of 2:40 pm ET, July 2. Pre-match betting odds are dynamic and subject to change up until first serve.

Several of the July 3 matches are yet to be posted at online sportsbooks.