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Jump to: Prediction Market Prices || American Odds
For the first time in history, the World Cup will feature a 32-team knockout stage. With just 12 games left in the group stage, the round of 32 is starting to take shape. Four of the 16 matchups are already cemented.
The table below lists the current odds and prices for each matchup, including the three-way moneyline, total-goals odds, and odds to advance.
World Cup Knockout Stage Odds & Prices
The prices in the table are from prediction site Kalshi on June 26.
If you’re more comfortable with American odds, the prices above translate as follows:
South Africa vs Canada
- Moneyline: +456/+285/-138
- Total Goals: Ov 2.5 (+133) / Un 2.5 (-138)
- Odds to Advance: -257/+257
Brazil vs Japan
- Moneyline: -138/+270/+426
- Total Goals: Ov 2.5 (+108) / Un 2.5 (-122)
- Odds to Advance: -285/+233
Netherlands vs Morocco
- Moneyline: +117/+233/+285
- Total Goals: Ov 2.5 (+133) / Un 2.5 (-150)
- Odds to Advance: -178/+163
United States vs Bosnia and Herzegovina
- Moneyline: -212/+355/+669
- Total Goals: Ov 2.5 (-117) / Un (-108)
- Odds to Advance: -426/+335
As the markets mature, the de facto vig on some of these markets will abate (e.g. the USA vs BiH total-goal market).
Readers can use SBD’s odds converter to find American odds from Kalshi prices (and vice versa); enter the Kalshi price into the “Implied Probability” field in order to convert it to traditional sportsbook odds.
Odds to Win World Cup Ahead of Knockout Stage
The current top-four favorites in the odds to win the World Cup are France (+385), Spain (+525), England (+625), and defending-champion Argentina (+675).
After those four heavyweights, there is a drop-off to fifth-favorite Portugal (+975).
The graphic below shows the current top-ten teams at Kalshi along with their latest “Yes” price in cents.
The next ten are:
- Norway (2.5¢)
- Colombia (1.6¢)
- Morocco (1.6¢)
- Japan (1.4¢)
- Belgium (1.1¢)
- Switzerland (0.8¢)
- Ecuador (0.6¢)
- Croatia (0.5¢)
- Canada (0.3¢)
- Ivory Coast (0.3¢)
Bookmark SBD’s World Cup game odds to see up-to-the-minute moneylines and over/under odds for every match in the knockout stage.
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