World Cup Picks & Computer Predictions (Jun 22)

• The June 22 World Cup slate features massive mismatches and crucial survivor spots
• France and Argentina stand as heavy home favorites
• See the smartest data-backed predictions directly from our computer model

The World Cup group stage continues on Monday, June 22, with a four-game slate offering a wide spectrum of betting angles. The schedule includes Argentina vs Austria (1:00 PM ET), France vs Iraq (5:00 PM ET), Norway vs Senegal (8:00 PM ET), and Jordan vs Algeria (11:00 PM ET).

I ran all four matches through our proprietary A.I. prediction model to get its top pick for each game. The table below summarizes those picks and the best-available prices. Under the table, I have reproduced the computer’s rationale for each pick along with one-click options to tail the bets.

World Cup Computer Picks & Model Predictions (Jun 22)

The model is going very chalky for the second straight day, but it’s been on an absolute heater the last 48 hours, going 7-2 SU on its last nine picks. After Spain trounced Saudi Arabia 4-0 on Sunday, the model improved its tournament record to 20-17 (+2.23 units on 1-unit wagers).

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Argentina vs Austria Computer Pick: Argentina ML (-186 at Kalshi)

A.I. rationale: “The Kalshi price of 65¢ (-186) is a slightly better payout than the -189 moneyline available elsewhere, keeping Argentina as the model’s preferred side in this matchup. Argentina paired clean defensive control with efficient finishing in its opener, scoring three goals without conceding and building a +3 goal differential.

Both teams generated exactly nine total shots, but Argentina created the higher-quality chances, putting six attempts on target compared to Austria’s three. Austria also conceded late in its opener, and the model sees Argentina’s sharper shot profile and stronger defensive baseline as enough to justify the moneyline.”

France vs Iraq Computer Pick: France -2.5 (-127 at Kalshi)

A.I. rationale: “With the France moneyline sitting at 90¢ on Kalshi, the model prefers attacking the spread rather than laying a massive straight-up price. The Kalshi price of 56¢ (-127) on France to win by more than 2.5 goals creates the more attractive betting angle.

France produced 11 total shots and put eight on target in its opener while maintaining 54% possession and allowing just one goal. Iraq, meanwhile, surrendered four goals, managed only one shot on target and held just 37% possession. The model expects France to overwhelm a vulnerable Iraqi defense and create enough chances to cover the number.”

Norway vs Senegal Computer Pick: Norway ML (+127 at Kalshi)

A.I. rationale: “The Kalshi price of 44¢ (+127) beats the +120 available elsewhere, giving the model a plus-money entry on a Norway side it rates ahead of the market. Norway controlled its first match with 63% possession and a +3 goal differential, while Senegal managed only 46% possession and finished with a -2 goal differential.

The shot data creates the clearest separation. Norway doubled Senegal’s total shot output, 12 to six, and tripled its shots on target, six to two. The model expects Norway to dictate the tempo again and turn that territorial edge into a win.”

Jordan vs Algeria Computer Pick: Algeria ML (-163 at Kalshi)

A.I. rationale: “The Kalshi price of 62¢ (-163) offers a marginally better payout than the -167 moneyline available elsewhere, and the model still makes Algeria the more likely winner. Both teams enter off shaky defensive openers, conceding three goals apiece, but Algeria showed far more control in possession.

Algeria held 53% possession in its first match compared to Jordan’s 38%, a gap the model views as especially important in a bounce-back spot. Algeria also drew 13 free kicks, giving it more ways to control territory, slow the match down and create set-piece pressure.”