Expert NASCAR Brickyard 400 Predictions & Best Bets for Indianapolis

Ryan Blaney over Tyler Reddick (+180, Fanatics)

This is the most aggressive play on the card, but the price creates an attractive opportunity.

The models disagree. One projects Blaney to finish 9.04 and Reddick at 12.16, giving Blaney a 56.21% matchup probability. The other places Reddick at 3.81 and Blaney at 11.38.

Fanatics requires Blaney to win only 35.71% of the time. Even with the disagreement, +180 leaves considerable room for error.

Blaney also owns several advantages across the raw comparable-track metrics. His average running position is 11.91 compared to Reddick’s 13.48. He averages 27.13 laps led across the sample, more than double Reddick’s 13.25. Their SS2 practice rankings were nearly identical, with Blaney 12th and Reddick 13th.

The box scores strengthen the Blaney argument. He won at Nashville and led 139 laps there last season, then finished third at Pocono, seventh at Indianapolis and fourth at Gateway. Reddick finished ninth, 32nd, 29th and 16th in those same four races.

Blaney also finished ahead of Reddick at Michigan this season. Reddick recovered with second-place finishes at Pocono and a sixth at Nashville, explaining why the second model remains bullish.

Reddick starts third compared to Blaney in 13th, but this wager only cares where they finish. Blaney has already demonstrated that he can move forward at Indianapolis, climbing from 24th to seventh and winning Stage 2 last year.

We are not claiming Blaney should be a massive favorite. We are claiming +180 is too large for a driver with comparable practice speed and an excellent record within this track group. If Reddick leads all afternoon, we will compliment his speed while quietly removing Fanatics from the home screen.

Josh Berry over Michael McDowell (+250, Fanatics)

Berry is the longshot of the group. Both models favor McDowell, and the practice metric does too.

That is normally where we close the sportsbook and find something else to do. The +250 price keeps the conversation alive.

Berry needs to win this matchup only 28.57% of the time. The matchup tool estimates his probability at 38.06%, creating 9.48% of theoretical value. His average projected finishes are 28.85 and 23.43, while McDowell checks in at 22.76 and 14.08.

The raw comparable-track metrics are much closer than those projections suggest. Berry’s average running position is 21.58, nearly identical to McDowell’s 21.29. Berry averages 2.13 fastest laps compared to McDowell’s 0.50, while neither driver has led a lap across the eight-race sample. McDowell carries modest advantages in top-15 percentage and quality passes.

Berry also beat McDowell in several relevant box scores. He finished 12th at both Michigan and Pocono in 2025, while McDowell placed 30th and 35th. Berry again beat him 15th to 26th at Michigan this season.

Most importantly, Berry finished 22nd in last year’s Brickyard 400 while McDowell placed 30th. Neither driver was summoned to kiss the bricks, but Berry won the matchup by eight spots.

McDowell starts sixth and Berry 26th, while the SS2 practice metric ranked them 18th and 35th. This is not the comfortable selection. We are betting that McDowell’s qualifying position overstates his 400-mile race strength and that +250 substantially overstates the difference between them.

Berry does not need to become a contender. He only needs to survive long enough for Indianapolis to begin doing Indianapolis things.

Ty Gibbs over Carson Hocevar (-130 at theScore Bet)