Indiana vs USC Predictions & Picks (Feb 3)

• Sharp money has flipped the line to make Indiana road favorites following its double-overtime victory at UCLA
• Advanced rim protection metrics point toward the Under 152.5 as Jacob Cofie and Sam Alexis lock down the paint
• Analysis favors the Hoosiers to cover the short spread against a USC squad fighting for consistency at the Galen Center

Indiana is rolling after upsetting rival Purdue and outlasting UCLA in a double-overtime thriller Saturday in Los Angeles.

Tonight, the Hoosiers travel across town to face USC. Tip-off is set for 10 pm, ET (Peacock).

The Hoosiers (15-7, 6-5 Big Ten) have won three in a row and climbed back into the NCAA Tournament picture.

USC (16-6, 5-6 Big Ten) has been wildly inconsistent this season, seemingly alternating wins and losses since the new year began. Now the Trojans face a Hoosiers squad playing its best basketball.

Bettors must weigh the Hoosiers’ current momentum against the challenge of completing a demanding West Coast road trip against a Trojans team that boasts an 8-3 record at home. Our analysis highlights the best bets for Indiana at USC.

Indiana vs USC Best Bets & Predictions

The market has reacted aggressively to Indiana’s recent form, swinging the Hoosiers from opening underdogs to road favorites. By analyzing the situational spots and statistical mismatches, we have identified the strongest value plays for this conference showdown.

The Spread: Indiana -1.5 (+100) at FanDuel

The most significant indicator for this matchup is the sharp line movement. Indiana opened as a +1.5 underdog, but respected money has steamed the number, flipping the Hoosiers to -1.5 favorites. This reversal validates the “eye test” from Indiana’s recent surge, particularly its resilience in high-pressure road environments like Pauley Pavilion.

While USC features efficient interior scoring from transfer forward Ezra Ausar (61.0% FG), Indiana’s defensive consistency gives the Hoosiers the edge. IU allows just 70.5 points per game — nearly five points fewer than USC — and possesses the perimeter length to disrupt the Trojans’ offensive flow. Lamar Wilkerson has been a revelation, averaging 19.6 points per game and providing the late-game shot-making necessary to close out tight contests. Getting a surging team at even money essentially to win the game represents solid value.

Prediction: Indiana wins a hard-fought battle, 78-74.

The Total: Under 152.5 Points (-112) at DraftKings

Despite both rosters featuring high-end scoring talent, the situational and defensive metrics suggest a lower-scoring affair than the total implies.

• Rim Protection: USC’s Jacob Cofie is an elite eraser, averaging 1.68 blocks per game, while Indiana’s Sam Alexis patrols the paint with 1.14 blocks per contest.
• Situational Fatigue: This is the tail end of a cross-country road trip for Indiana, following an emotional victory vs. Purdue.
• Liability Management: Sportsbooks have priced the Under at -112 compared to -108 for the Over, signaling a desire to limit exposure on a defensive struggle.

Expect a physical, half-court game where possession efficiency trumps pace.

Team Prop: Indiana Team Total Over 76.5 Points (-109) at BetMGM

While we lean toward the game Under, Indiana’s team total offers a correlated angle to the spread pick. If the Hoosiers cover, they likely do so by executing offensively against a USC defense allowing 75.3 points per game.

Tucker DeVries (14.1 PPG) and Wilkerson provide a potent punch that can exploit USC’s tendency to foul. Furthermore, point guard Conor Enright (4.4 APG) has been masterful at controlling tempo and finding efficient shots for role players like Tayton Conerway (69.1% on two-point attempts). The Hoosiers have the depth to eclipse this number even in a game that stays under the full game total of 152.5.

Note: Odds are subject to change.

Public Betting Splits

The college basketball public betting data for Tuesday night reveals a distinct “sharp vs. public” divide regarding the total, while the side shows heavy conviction from high-volume bettors.

Spread & Moneyline: Smart Money on the Hoosiers

The consensus is building behind the road team. Indiana is commanding 69.09% of the spread bets, but the conviction is even stronger in the handle, with 77.08% of the money backing the Hoosiers to cover -1.5.

The Moneyline split is even more telling. While the ticket count is nearly dead even—Indiana 51.47% vs. USC 48.53%—the actual cash is overwhelmingly on the visitors. A massive 83.18% of the moneyline handle is on Indiana. This indicates that whale bettors and syndicates are heavily invested in the Hoosiers leaving Los Angeles with a victory.

Total: The Contrarian Edge

The public betting percentages on the total create a contrarian opportunity. As is typical, the public favors the Over, with 58.03% of tickets and 57.84% of the handle rooting for points. Our analysis on the Under 152.5 fades this public sentiment, aligning with the defensive metrics and situational fatigue factors.

Indiana vs USC Team Stats

Indiana vs USC Odds

• Moneyline: Indiana -116 | USC -104
• Spread: Indiana -1.5 (+100) | USC +1.5 (-121)
• Total: Over 152.5 (-108) | Under 152.5 (-112)

Odds as of February 03, 2026 at 01:09 PM PST from Consensus.

The market paints this as a near coin-flip, but the vigorish-adjusted probabilities favor the road team. Indiana’s -116 moneyline implies a 51.3% win probability (vig-free), compared to 48.7% for USC.

For bettors eyeing a return on investment, a $20 wager on the Indiana Moneyline (-116) would return $17.24 in profit (total payout $37.24). A similar $20 bet on the USC Moneyline (-104) would yield $19.23 in profit (total payout $39.23). The slight juice on the Under (-112) further suggests that oddsmakers are protecting against a defensive struggle at the Galen Center.